Monday, January 19, 2026

Welcome to this Morning Mood! It's early, it's Monday, and I hope you had a great weekend. It was a very eventful weekend, especially on the geopolitical front, shaking up the markets this morning even before the European open.

Here are the key points to keep in mind as you start the week, involving diplomatic tensions, record gold prices, and trader psychology.

1. China: Growth That’s Not What It Seems

Before moving on to the big American topic, a quick look at China. The GDP figures are out: the annual target of 5% growth was met. That's good—they're staying the course despite the real estate crisis.

However, the main issue remains consumption. Retail sales are very weak, with a meager +0.9% increase. This confirms that domestic consumption is struggling and there's an urgent need for new economic stimulus.

2. The “Safe Box” of Greenland: The Strategic Stakes

This is the hot topic impacting US futures this morning. Why is everyone talking about Greenland? It's not exactly about tourism, but because it's an Eldorado for rare earths (Lithium, Neodymium, Uranium, etc.). It's a major strategic issue for the 21st century.

➡ Dependency: China currently controls 80% of the rare earth processing chain.

➡ US Objective: The United States wants to reduce this dependency for 2026 and beyond.

➡ Geography: Greenland (and the North Pole) is at the heart of the Asia–Europe–US route. As the ice melts, it becomes a shipping highway that shortens travel by 10 days.

Trump's Ultimatum

Donald Trump wants total control and has issued an ultimatum to Europe (specifically Denmark, as Greenland is an autonomous Danish territory). He claims that Europe is blocking NATO's security by refusing to cede control over this territory.

The threat is clear: tariffs of 10% from February 1st, rising to 25% in June on eight countries, including France and Germany. This is a complete reassessment of European and transatlantic solidarity. The luxury and defense sectors could be hit.

3. Market Reaction: Volatility and Safe Havens

As a direct result of these tensions, volatility is evident this morning, even though US markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Day.

Indices and Stocks

➡ DAX: Around 25,000 points. We're down 300 points (about 1.2%) since Friday's close.

➡ S&P 500: Fell below 6,900 points this morning in the futures (about a 1% drop).

➡ Defense Sector: If Europe has to ensure its own defense due to US withdrawal, defense stocks should continue to rise.

Commodities & Crypto

➡ Gold: New all-time high at $4,680 per ounce.

➡ Silver: +3% this morning, more volatile than gold.

➡ Bitcoin: Healthy consolidation (-1%). We've hit resistance zones (like $3,400 on Ethereum, now back to $3,200). It's a "reset" phase short-term, but no general panic.

4. Companies’ Agenda for the Week

Despite today's US holiday, earnings season continues. Here are this week’s key events:

➡ Tuesday: Netflix and 3M.

➡ Wednesday: Johnson & Johnson.

➡ Thursday: A flurry of results from Procter & Gamble, Intel, Intuitive Surgical, Alcoa, Texas Capital Bank, and GE Aerospace.

5. Psychology & Method: The “Brick” Technique

I get a lot of messages from people who are worried or want to master everything right away. Here’s my tip of the day: go step by step.

Don’t try to build the entire wall at once. Your goal should be to lay the first brick as perfectly as possible.

➡ Don’t be "all-in": You don’t need to be 100% exposed everywhere, all the time. If the market falls, take a small position. If the market proves you right, add to it. That’s how progress happens.

➡ Accept being wrong: Look at the Euro/Dollar. I’ve been selling for six months. If the market rises above $1.16? I stop pushing it. I won’t force it if the market doesn’t confirm my plan.

➡ Stop comparing: Don’t watch the neighbor claiming to make millions. Stay focused on your process, your risk management. If you force it, you’ll make mistakes.

You build something solid by learning brick by brick, failure after failure. If you stop learning, you’re “dead” in the market.

Final word:

Indices are correcting a bit, gold is soaring, the dollar is losing ground. It’s shaping up to be a technical week. Don’t try to guess what Trump is thinking—follow what the market tells you.

Have a great week and happy trading to everyone!