Monday, January 26, 2026

The week kicks off at full speed. With historic records in precious metals, a crucial Fed meeting, and a flood of corporate earnings, volatility is back. Here’s what you need to know to start your trading week with clarity.

1. Star Asset: Gold Breaks the Glass Ceiling

The headline at the start of this week: Gold (the famous "number 10") continues its parabolic climb.

New Records: Gold opened above $5,050. Silver is also surging, up 4% this morning.

The Causes: This move is driven by a "flight to quality" (Safe Haven). Geopolitical tensions, uncertainty around U.S. debt, central bank diversification, and fiscal fears in Europe are pushing investors to the yellow metal.

Context: The asset is weathering all storms, ignoring traditional fundamentals and instead responding to an out-of-balance law of supply and demand.

2. Macroeconomy: The Fed and the Shadow of Inflation

The macro agenda is dominated by the Fed's first meeting of the year, scheduled for Wednesday, January 29.

Interest Rates: No changes expected. Rates should remain in the 3.50% - 3.75% range.

Stubborn Inflation: Core inflation remains anchored at 2.9%, keeping Jerome Powell from adopting a dovish tone. Expect a rather "hawkish" (firm) speech.

US Economy: GDP remains robust at 4.4%, but demand shows signs of slowing.

Politics & Banks: The U.S. banking sector is under particular tension after the Trump administration’s push to cap credit card interest rates at 10% (compared to the usual 20-25%), squeezing bank margins.

Important Note: The IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.3% for 2026, but specifies that this expansion heavily depends on the tech sector's health.

3. Corporate: From Promise to Profitability

This is a decisive week for earnings reports. After the AI-related hype of 2025, the market now demands tangible results and return on investment (ROI).

The Tech Giants (the “Magnificent”): Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla: These key players report this week. Any disappointment in the profitability of their massive investments could sharply impact their share prices (like Intel recently).

The LVMH Case & the CAC 40: LVMH: The luxury giant also releases results. It’s a crucial test for the Paris index. If LVMH disappoints, it will weigh down the whole sector and drag the CAC 40 lower. Conversely, good figures could save the index, which is struggling below 8,200 points.

Other releases to watch: Boeing, UnitedHealth, Visa.

4. Technical Overview & Trading Strategies

Stock markets are under pressure, weakened by the falling Dollar and risk aversion.

Indices & Forex

S&P 500: Sentiment is bearish short-term. A "Short" position is held with an entry point around 6,880, aiming for a deeper correction.

CAC 40: The index is heavy and moves between 7,900 and 8,200 points. Caution is advised as long as 8,200 is not retaken.

Euro/Dollar: The weak greenback benefits the Euro. A long position is being built around 1.1850.

Commodities & Crypto

Oil: Technical rebound around $65 per barrel.

₿ Bitcoin: Dead calm. BTC is ranging between $87,000 and $88,000. The market is in a consolidation/wait-and-see phase. There’s no panic selling, but buyers are waiting for a catalyst.

5. Final Word: Psychology & Mindset

To succeed during this busy week, your mental approach will be key.

“Clarity precedes performance.” Action Plan: Don’t start the week with a "let’s see what happens" attitude. Set clear goals and concrete action plans (micro-actions). If you’re flying blind in such a volatile environment, you’ll suffer at the hands of the market. Preparation and organization are your best assets against uncertainty.

Bonus tip: A smile, a kind gesture, a positive message... it takes two seconds and brightens the day (yours and others').

Have a great week and happy trading everyone!

Xavier Fenaux