Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins: Where Do We Really Stand at the Start of 2026?
Well, listen, I think we're off. It's 2026.
Let me offer a quick crypto debrief. Hello everyone.
Wishing those who haven't received my best wishes all around a wonderful 2026. It's true that yesterday, I already made a video here on this channel to talk about oil, what's happening in Venezuela with the US, and the impact of that, and I forgot the essential: with my head down, I forgot to wish you a wonderful year 2026.
May we learn new things. May we simply be, and that's already something, a better version of ourselves.
That's more or less the goal. May we make mistakes, learn, and of course succeed regarding the goals we set for ourselves. Small daily actions, this discipline we impose on ourselves, whether in the markets or elsewhere.
So I wish you all the best for 2026. May everyone be at their peak.
Crypto Market Update
Regarding the crypto market, I'm giving a quick update this Tuesday, a bit earlier in the week than usual, simply because maybe some good things are brewing.
Let's not get carried away. You know my mindset, especially psychologically. We're not going to get excited about a few consecutive green candles on short timeframes.
If you remember, at the end of November, we saw that the crypto market was in extreme panic with the Fear & Greed Index at its lowest in terms of score, but at its highest in terms of fear.
With Bitcoin, we might have a repeat of what happened before when we hit this same panic level. That was late February—early March. We were at the same point and managed to stabilize for at least a month and a half to two months.
That's exactly what's happening now. We've marked this low point amid extreme fear, and that's a good sign.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin is around 94,000. That's a high we already marked at the end of the year.
Ethereum is still in a downward trend defined by a descending channel since September. We're currently testing the upper boundary.
Why no euphoria? Because for Ethereum, we need to break above 3,400, stay there, and start making higher lows and higher highs.
Short term, the good news is we're beginning to see higher lows, which could indicate we're moving past the string of lower lows.
We're also moving back above the daily 50 MA. This is not a bull run signal—not at all. It just hints at trend and stabilization.
Altcoins and Total 3
If we look at the top 50 cryptos by value over the past month, Bitcoin is roughly in the middle. Half are doing better, half are doing worse.
No altseason yet. I don't think there will be one in the broad sense. The market is more and more concentrated—it was the case in 2025 and will continue in 2026.
For Total 3, we're still in a descending channel. We need to break and settle above resistance to really question the downtrend of recent months.
On longer timeframes, we've been moving sideways for nearly a year. Major support zones are still holding.
Macroeconomics and NFP
This first week of 2026 is important, especially because of the NFP, monthly employment figures in the US.
These numbers are crucial as they'll influence rate-cut expectations for 2026. The market currently expects the first cut around April, with several more baked in by year-end.
It's especially job creation and wage growth that matter, as they give clues on inflation.
The Fed has a dual mandate: price stability and employment, so it has to juggle both.
Active Management
Why am I not changing my strategy or increasing my exposure significantly? Because there are still major resistances overhead.
For me, it's essential to keep cash. We're not sure the bottom is really behind us.
The logic remains the same:
– increase exposure on pullbacks – reduce exposure on excess – never be stuck fully invested
I've applied this with Ethereum, with BNB, and I keep doing it.
Always being fully invested means losing control of your management. If the market drops 50%, you then need to double up just to break even.
I believe a balanced portfolio, between active management and the long term, is essential now, especially in a market that's naturally narrowing down more and more.
Conclusion
We're in a healthy, sideways consolidation phase. Early 2026 might see a bit of green, but it's not enough to justify a radical shift in stance.
The point isn't to guess or say afterward "I was right." The point is to know what to do if the market goes one way, and what to do if it proves us wrong.
Ladies and gentlemen, I wish you once again a wonderful 2026, a wonderful day, a wonderful week.
See you very soon. Thanks for your likes. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel. It’s always appreciated and supports these regular updates.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins: Where Do We Really Stand at the Start of 2026?