We Are Preparing for a HIGH-TENSION WEEK!
On this Monday, July 28, global markets awaken with cautious optimism, buoyed by major trade agreements and the anticipation of key corporate earnings releases. A calm atmosphere, contrasting with past tensions, seems to prevail, although attentive investors should remain alert to potential risks.
Trade Deals: A Breath of Relief for the Markets
The week begins under the sign of easing trade tensions. Key news over the weekend includes the postponement of tariffs with China and the finalization of deals between the European Union and the United States. The two sides sealed a compromise ahead of August 1, planning to reduce tariffs to 15% (down from the originally considered 30%) in exchange for substantial EU investments in the U.S., notably in strategic and military sectors (over $700 billion and $600 billion respectively).
While this agreement has faced some criticism for its balance for the EU, markets generally welcomed its conclusion, seeing it as a way to avoid escalation with Donald Trump. This dynamic recalls the recent agreement between the U.S. and Japan, which had a positive impact, as seen in the 5% nickel surge last week. Although markets benefit from this relaxation, caution is advised: it’s important not to "overreact" to good or bad news, but rather rely on an intervention method and confirmed signals before taking positions.
A Week Packed With Earnings and Macroeconomic Data
The week of July 28 is especially busy with corporate earnings releases. Big tech and industry names are on the agenda:
Wednesday evening: Meta (Facebook), Microsoft
Thursday aftermarket: Apple, Amazon
Tuesday pre-market: Visa, UNH, PayPal, Boeing, UPS, Merck, Procter & Gamble
After a relatively good week for banking stocks, attention now turns to these giants. To date, 34% of SP500 companies have released their Q2 results, with 80% beating expectations in earnings per share. However, the SP500 valuation, at more than 22.4 times projected earnings, remains extremely high (the five-year average is below 20, and the ten-year is 18.4). These earnings reports are crucial; any disappointment could trigger a sharper consolidation. So far, U.S. futures are at historic highs, especially the SP500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones.
On the macroeconomic front, the week is also packed:
Wednesday: ADP release at 2:15 pm, followed by the Federal Reserve’s decision in the evening.
Thursday: PCE inflation index (more weighted than CPI).
Friday: U.S. monthly jobs report.
These events are all potential catalysts, and investors at interactivtrading.com should stay alert.
Investment Strategy and Market Outlook
Given these market conditions, caution is key. The bullish gap opening after good weekend news calls for vigilance. Don’t jump to buy impulsively. The strategy is to wait for pullbacks and work in defined intervention zones. For the DAX, the 24,000-point range has been a key benchmark for two weeks, prompting buying at the bottom of the range and selling at the top.
Regarding commodities and currencies:
The U.S. TOE10 is stable.
Gold remains within a three-month range, with the buy zone still far off.
Both oil and the U.S. dollar are stable as well.
Cryptocurrency Market: Upward Potential, But With Caution
The cryptocurrency market shows generally positive trends. Targets remain significant, especially for assets like Solana and Ethereum. For Ethereum, a target above $4,000, even $4,400, is in sight. However, amid optimism, it's advised not to get carried away. The recently observed sideways consolidation is a normal phase before possible new highs. The approach is to hold onto current positions without overexposing, especially since previous drops allowed for accumulation at lower prices. Patience is necessary, particularly as recent liquidations have helped clean up the market.
Crypto assets such as Solana, AVE, and ETC remain promising. The idea is to "hold" rather than "run," staying exposed but avoiding overtrading. The trends and polarities are unmistakably positive, justifying a “green cap” (optimistic) on both traditional markets and cryptos.
Personal Discipline and Philosophical Reflections
Beyond financial analysis, the article reflects on personal discipline and resilience. The author shares their experience of "Sunday discipline," stressing the importance of physical activity to manage stress and maintain a positive attitude.
While sometimes criticized, these comments are seen as a test, a way to "filter out" the audience to keep only those who aspire to be better. The analogy with Inoxtag’s documentary "Kaizen" is striking: willpower and hard work, despite criticism, are crucial drivers. Life is too short to be dragged down by negativity or others’ judgments. It’s vital to make the most of each day and choose one’s own path, even at the risk of being criticized.
Respecting everyone's choices and not being a “preacher” is a core philosophy. Inspiration should come from those who lift us up.
interactivtrading.com will support you throughout this eventful week. Stay tuned for in-depth analyses and regular market updates.
Strength and honor! Have a great week and a great Monday, July 28 to all!