USA vs Venezuela: What Impact on Oil?
January 2, 2026: The Turning Point
On January 2, 2026, the world changes dramatically. The US military intervenes in Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro. The country, Venezuela, alone holds 17% of the world’s oil reserves. The regime has just changed in less than 48 hours.
At this point, everyone is thinking:
“Oil will explode, we’ll see prices hit $200 a barrel.”
Well, as I speak, oil prices are actually falling.
So, disillusionment or logic?
The Venezuelan Paradox
Venezuela sits on no less than 300 billion barrels of oil. Yes, really.
Today, with just over 100 million barrels per day consumed worldwide, Venezuela supplies less than a million barrels a day.
That’s just 1% of the global supply. If Venezuela disappeared tomorrow, Saudi Arabia could cover the shortfall.
And yet, with 300 billion barrels, it’s the world’s largest reserve, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Why This Oil Is a Problem
The first secret is that Venezuelan oil is totally gunked up. Technically, it’s extra-heavy oil, even heavier than heavy.
For the purists, its density is over 10. It’s barely a liquid—it’s basically bitumen.
A Simple Example
Take a straw and a soda: that’s Saudi oil. Now take a jar of Nutella and try with a straw: that’s Venezuelan oil.
To extract it, you need to inject high-pressure steam to liquefy it. And it’s so thick it doesn’t even flow properly through pipes.
Result: sometimes Venezuela has to import light oil to mix with its own. It’s a complete industrial mess.
Roughly, it costs three to four times more than extracting oil in Saudi Arabia. At $60 a barrel, it’s not profitable.
This isn’t a black gold mine; it’s a financial sinkhole.
Why the Market Didn’t React
There are refineries capable of handling this oil, especially in the United States, in the Gulf of Mexico. They’re almost the only ones in the world.
But the markets were already aware. Since 2019, refineries aren’t really adapted for this kind of oil. They even import from Canada nowadays.
This 2026 intervention isn’t a shock; it’s the end of a decline that started over seven years ago.
Production Collapse
In 1999, with the arrival of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela was producing 3.5 million barrels a day. Today: less than a million.
The national company PDVSA was used as a cash cow for social programs, with no reinvestment in maintenance. Wells clogged, pipes rusted, and engineers left.
It would take about $20 billion just to keep things running, and at least ten years to return to above 3 million barrels a day.
In that scenario, companies like Chevron or Schlumberger could land contracts for ten to twenty years.
Why Oil Prices Aren’t Soaring
Other producers are already compensating:
- Guyana: over 1.2 million barrels/day (ExxonMobil)
- United States: about 13 million barrels/day
- Brazil: record production
So far, Nicolás Maduro was selling his oil via ships with their GPS off to send it to China. The oil was already reaching the world market, but via the black market.
The US intervention doesn’t change the volume, just the entry point.
Long-term Strategic Stakes
The United States isn’t thinking about tomorrow’s fuel prices, but about energy sovereignty for the next decade. China controls part of Venezuela’s infrastructure.
Today, 80% of Venezuelan oil was going to China to pay old debts.
Washington wants to put this flow back in a conventional framework and eliminate the black market, especially since Texas refineries are designed for this ultra-heavy oil. Without it, they run poorly or not at all.
What to Watch For
- A risk of civil war in Venezuela
- A possible reaction from Iran
- China's position on debt repayment
Conclusion
Venezuela holds 300 billion barrels, trapped by ultra-complex geology and unstable geopolitics.
The real wealth isn’t having oil, but having the technology to extract it.
Now you know everything.
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