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September 19, 2025 - Third Party

US PREMARKET ACTIONS: September 19, 2025

Futures Indices

Dow Futures: FLAT

S&P 500 Futures: +0.1%

Nasdaq 100 Futures: +0.14%

US 10-Year Rate: 4.13% (+2 bps)

Market Environment

Wall Street continues its post-Fed rally, with all three major indices closing at record highs on Thursday. The bullish momentum is fueled by tech stocks, cybersecurity, and optimism for an ever more accommodative monetary policy.

"The 25 basis point rate cut, combined with a dovish revision of the dot plot, fuels expectations of further cuts by the end of 2025." — Henry Allen, Deutsche Bank

The Fed has already lowered rates by 125 basis points since September 2024, an unprecedented pace outside of a recession since the 1980s. Markets are anticipating two more cuts before the end of the year.

On the geopolitical front, all eyes are on a scheduled call at 3pm (French time) between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which could be decisive for US-China relations. A 90-day extension of the trade truce has been agreed upon, and a TikTok deal appears imminent. A visit by Trump to China could even happen soon.

Elsewhere, the White House is asking the Supreme Court to remove Lisa Cook from her position at the Fed—a move with significant political implications.

Stocks to Watch

Significant Gainers:

  • 22nd Century Group (XXII) +31%
    The stock soared after news of repaying its $3.9M secured debt, making the company entirely debt-free. It plans to expand its VLN tobacco inventory to support production.

  • FedEx (FDX) +5%
    FQ1 results beat expectations. The company aims for 4–6% revenue growth in FY2026, with EPS estimated at $17.20–19.00. Strategic initiatives and operational digitalization are driving this momentum.

  • UPS (UPS) +2%
    Benefits from the FedEx effect. UPS also announced the withdrawal of its acquisition of Estafeta in Mexico, citing unmet closing conditions.

Significant Losers:

  • Scholastic (SCHL) -13%
    Disappointing FQ1 results: Education Solutions revenue down 28%, Entertainment down 18%. However, the company maintains its annual outlook.

  • Lennar (LEN) -3%
    Q3 results below expectations, with net income down 50% and gross margin shrinking to 17.5%. Q4 guidance points to continued demand pressure.

Recommendation Changes

Upgrades

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ($ALNY) → RBC raises its price target to $500 from $435, maintaining an Outperform rating.

  • Fiverr International ($FVRR) → BTIG upgrades to Buy from Neutral, with a target price set at $31.

  • Klaviyo ($KVYO) → Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight, price target raised to $50 (vs $40).

  • Lincoln National ($LNC) → Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight, target raised to $58 from $41.

  • eBay ($EBAY) → President Capital upgrades to Buy from Neutral, with a revised target of $103 (from $74).

  • Tesla ($TSLA) → Baird upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, raising the target dramatically to $548 (vs $320).

  • Viking Holdings ($VIK) → Truist raises target to $59 (vs $55), maintaining Hold.

  • Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) → Truist raises target to $31 (vs $27), maintains Buy.

  • Jefferies → Boeing ($BA): initiation with a Buy rating.

Neutral

  • FedEx ($FDX)

    • Wolfe Research raises target to $254 (vs $244), Outperform maintained.

    • Wells Fargo to $250 (vs $235), Equalweight maintained.

    • BMO Capital to $255 (vs $260), Market Perform maintained.

    • Bernstein to $250 (vs $247), Market Perform maintained.

    • JPMorgan to $284 (vs $285), Overweight maintained.

    • Citigroup to $279 (vs $275), Buy maintained.

    • Stifel to $296 (vs $308), Buy maintained.

    • Goldman Sachs to $280 (vs $276), Buy maintained.

    • Jefferies to $280 (vs $275), Buy maintained.

  • Arthur J. Gallagher ($AJG)

    • Jefferies: target raised to $326 (vs $323), Hold maintained.

    • Goldman Sachs: target to $347 (vs $344), Buy maintained.

    • Wells Fargo: target lowered to $365 (vs $369), Overweight maintained.

    • KBW: target to $298 (vs $288), Market Perform maintained.

  • Royal Caribbean ($RCL) → Truist slightly lowers target to $333 (vs $337), Hold maintained.

  • Apple ($AAPL) → JPMorgan adjusts target to $280 (vs $255), Overweight maintained.

  • Moody's ($MCO) → Wells Fargo adjusts target to $597 (vs $595), Overweight maintained.

  • S&P Global ($SPGI) → Wells Fargo adjusts target to $661 (vs $660), Overweight maintained.

Downgrades

  • LPL Financial ($LPLA) → Rothschild & Co Redburn moves to Neutral (vs Buy), target lowered to $390 (vs $460).

  • Dayforce ($DAY) → Stifel downgrades to Hold (vs Buy), target lowered to $70 (vs $72).

  • United Parcel Service ($UPS) → BMO Capital lowers rating to Market Perform (vs Outperform), target cut to $96 (vs $125).

  • MetLife ($MET) → Piper Sandler moves to Neutral (vs Overweight), target at $84.

  • Intel ($INTC) → Citigroup downgrades to Sell (vs Neutral), target raised to $29 (vs $24).

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Have a great session, everyone
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Stock Coach

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