US PREMARKET ACTIONS: November 14, 2025

Futures Indices

Dow Futures: -0.4%
S&P 500 Futures: -0.6%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -1%

Market Environment

Markets are falling this morning after a sharp decline on Thursday, as hopes for the end of the shutdown fade in favor of renewed economic concerns. The S&P 500 lost 1.66%, its worst session in over a month.

"Shutdown relief is clashing with worries about AI valuations and a more cautious tone from Fed officials this week," explains Jim Reid (Deutsche Bank).

The probability of a rate cut in December dropped to 49.6% from 59% on Wednesday (CME FedWatch). Comments from Fed members are expected today (Schmid, Logan, Bostic) as economic releases blocked by the shutdown could resume next week.

Stocks to Watch

Biggest Gainers:

Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) +92%
Strong rebound after imminent acquisition rumors by Merck, according to the Financial Times. The deal reportedly targets an antibody technology for the flu, with structure including upfront payments plus milestones.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) +4%
Up after WSJ reports: Netflix, Comcast, and Paramount are preparing non-binding offers before November 20. Paramount has already proposed $23.50/share.
Virgin Galactic (SPCE) +4%
Rises after better-than-expected results. The loss is reduced, and expenses are under control. The strategic plan remains unchanged with a target revenue of $450M/year eventually.
Avadel Pharma (AVDL) +17%
Rebounds after a new acquisition offer from Lundbeck ($23/share), higher than Alkermes’ ($20). The stock is reacting to this bidding war in the sleep sector.

Biggest Losers:

HIVE Digital (HIVE) -12%
Falls in the wake of Bitcoin dipping below $100,000. General risk-off sentiment on crypto-stocks: COIN -5%, RIOT -8%, MARA -5%, CLSK -9%.
Fossil Group (FOSL) -8%
Disappoints after Q3 results marked by a 6% drop in revenue and 27% plunge in direct sales. The group remains cautious for 2025.
Applied Materials (AMAT) -5%
Falls despite better-than-expected results. 2026 outlook is solid, but shares correct after prior anticipations.

Recommendation Changes

Upgraded

Applied Materials ($AMAT) → Fubon upgrades to Buy (target raised from $190 to $260)
Circle Internet ($CRCL) → Baird upgrades to Outperform with $110 target
MP Materials ($MP) → JPMorgan upgrades to Overweight, target adjusted from $75 to $74
Sempra ($SRE) → Goldman Sachs upgrades to Buy, target raised to $106
The Gap ($GPS) → Jefferies upgrades to Buy, target $30 (vs $22)

Neutral

Abercrombie & Fitch ($ANF) → Jefferies maintains Buy, target lowered from $130 to $100
Micron Technology ($MU) → DBS maintains Buy, target raised from $149 to $300
Natera ($NTRA) → Raymond James keeps Outperform, target raised to $245 (vs $188)

Downgraded

The Home Depot ($HD) → Stifel downgrades to Hold, target lowered to $370
Progressive Corp ($PGR) → Jefferies downgrades to Hold, target reduced to $232 (vs $261)

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Have a great session everyone
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Stock Coach