US PREMARKET ACTIONS : June 4, 2025
Futures Indices
Dow Futures: +0.2%
S&P 500 Futures: +0.2%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: +0.2%
US 10-Year Yield: 4.46% (-1 bp)
Persistent tension on the US-China trade front, but markets are making slight gains this morning, awaiting the ADP employment report and PMI releases.
Market Environment
Futures are inching up as investors digest encouraging employment data and remain cautious amid trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Indices ended sharply higher on Tuesday, boosted by a surprise drop in job openings (JOLTS), fueling optimism for a soft landing for the US economy.
President Trump mentioned the difficulties of reaching an agreement with Xi Jinping, as the White House may arrange a meeting between the two leaders this week.
The market awaits the May ADP report today (consensus: +111K jobs), as well as the S&P Global Composite PMI (52.1 expected) and ISM Services (52.0 expected).
The BLS's announced revision of April numbers, due to weighting errors, reminds investors that real-time economic data remains approximate.
Jim Reid (Deutsche Bank): “Yesterday's rebound was supported by tech, especially thanks to Meta's nuclear deal, which was less costly than Microsoft's.”
Paul Donovan (UBS): “This revision to the employment data is a reminder: real-time data is becoming less reliable.”
Why is it important?
These key releases will help fine-tune expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy. Signs of a resilient job market could revive expectations of sustainably high rates, while volatility remains subdued. Geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, may weigh on investor sentiment.
Stocks to Watch
Sagimet (SGMT) +22.04%: Successful acne treatment in a late-stage trial in China.
Guidewire (GWRE) +14.58%: Q3 results beat expectations, strong EPS surprise.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) +7.52%: Solid Q2, raised annual guidance. Annual growth expected between 7% and 9%.
Wells Fargo (WFC) +4.00%: The Fed lifts restrictions imposed since 2018 after corrective measures validated.
Asana (ASAN) -11.68%: Despite better-than-expected results, growth outlook disappoints analysts.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) -6.00%: Revenue forecast below consensus, despite 20% annual growth.
Orange County Bancorp (OBT) -5.83%: Announces $40M fundraising.
Merus (MRUS) -5.50%: Reduced price share offering ($57/share), expected dilutive impact.
Recommendation Changes
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Conclusion & Key Events
To watch today:
- May ADP report (pre-market)
- S&P Composite PMI and ISM Services
- Upcoming Fed officials' speeches
- Possible call between Biden and Xi Jinping
Expected volatility on: tech indices (Nasdaq), industrial stocks (China-sensitive), bond markets (with ADP)
Have a great session everyone
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Stock Coach