Futures Indices
- Dow Futures: +0.3%
- S&P 500 Futures: +0.4%
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: +0.4%
- US 10-Year Yield: 4.28% (-1 bp)
Market Environment
US equity futures are rising this Thursday, raising hopes for a new record for the S&P 500. Markets are processing relatively calm geopolitical news, with an Israel-Iran ceasefire holding, according to Henry Allen (Deutsche Bank): "Markets remained broadly stable yesterday, with no major catalysts."
Attention now turns to several upcoming catalysts:
- The US tax bill under discussion in the Senate, which the Biden administration hopes to pass by July 4th.
- A series of macro indicators due today:
- Durable goods orders (May): expected at +8.6% MoM
- Core orders (ex-transport): +0.1% MoM
- Final Q1 GDP revision: expected at -0.2%
- Weekly jobless claims: forecast at 244,000
- Fed balance sheet expected during the day
Paul Donovan (UBS) notes: "This Q1 GDP revision highlights the resilience of the US economy at the year's start, despite recent disruptions."
Stocks to Watch
Worthington Steel (WS) +14%
FQ4 results beat expectations despite a 9% drop in revenue. The CEO emphasizes operational strength and strategic progress (Sitem acquisition, investments, market share gains).
H.B. Fuller (FUL) +10%
The group raises its 2025 outlook, despite mixed Q2 results. Revenue decline now expected between -2% and -3% (vs -2% to -4%), adjusted EBITDA revised upwards, as well as EPS to $4.10–$4.30 (consensus at $4.08).
Kratos Defense (KTOS) -6%
Dropped following the announcement of a $500M capital raising via a public share offering to fund security programs, strategic acquisitions, and debt repayment.
Recommendation Changes
Upgrades
- FactSet Research Systems ($FDS) → Raymond James raises to market perform (vs underperform).
- General Mills ($GIS) → RBC upgrades to outperform (vs sector perform), target lowered from $67 to $63.
- Jefferies Financial Group ($JEF) → Zacks raises to neutral (vs underperform), target $59 (vs $45.55).
- Texas Pacific Land ($TPL) → Texas Capital upgrades to buy (vs hold), target raised to $1,280 (vs $1,240).
- Celsius Holdings ($CELH) → BNP Paribas Exane maintains outperform, target raised from $46 to $56.
- Coinbase Global ($COIN) → Oppenheimer maintains outperform, target raised to $395 (vs $293).
- Micron Technology ($MU) → Barclays remains overweight, target revised to $140 (vs $95).
- Quanta Services ($PWR) → Jefferies maintains hold, target raised to $359 (vs $298).
- Regal Rexnord ($RRX) → KeyBanc maintains overweight, target at $180 (vs $125).
Neutral
- The Cooper Companies ($COO) → Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains buy, target lowered to $95 (vs $120).
Downgrades
- Equinix ($EQIX) → BMO Capital downgrades to market perform (vs outperform), target reduced to $850 (vs $1,045).
- MGM Resorts ($MGM) → Citizens lowers to market perform (vs market outperform).
- New Fortress Energy ($NFE) → BTIG lowers to neutral (vs buy).
- The Trade Desk ($TTD) → Wells Fargo lowers to equalweight (vs overweight), target lowered to $68 (vs $74).
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Have a great session everyone
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Equity Coach
