Futures Indices
Dow Futures: +0.7%
S&P 500 Futures: +0.8%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: +1%
US 10-Year Yield: 4.34% (-1 bp)
Market Environment
The markets are digesting a fragile truce between Israel and Iran. Despite official statements, exchanges of strikes are ongoing. Israel has promised "high-intensity" retaliation after what it considers a ceasefire violation by Tehran, though Iran denies any attack.
Why is this important?
A return to extreme tensions could spark volatility, push up gold and oil, and weigh on risk assets. For now, markets are catching their breath in a closely watched geopolitical climate.
Powell before Congress today
Jerome Powell will speak at 4 pm (French time) before the House Financial Services Committee. His stance on inflation and future rate cuts could heavily influence markets.
Expected macro data:
- Case-Shiller Index: expected at +4% (Y/Y)
- Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board): consensus at 99.0
- House Price Index (April): expected at +0.1% (M/M)
Stocks to Watch
Notable Gains
- Teladoc Health (TDOC) +6%: Rally continues, boosted by Citron Research highlighting the platform's undervalued status and AI leverage.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) +4%: Success of its $2B convertible bond issuance.
- Lyft (LYFT) +3%: Rises after TD Cowen upgraded to Buy, citing international expansion strategy and product innovation.
Notable Declines
- Chewy (CHWY) -2%: Drops after a secondary share offering from its main shareholder. The company will repurchase $100M in shares without receiving proceeds.
- Tesla (TSLA): Under pressure following a lawsuit related to a fatal Model S accident in 2024.
Ratings Changes
Upgrades
- Electronic Arts Inc. ($EA) → Raised by Roth Capital Partners to Buy, price target increased to $185 (vs $175)
- Essex Property Trust ($ESS) → Upgraded by Raymond James to Outperform, target at $315
- Ge Vernova Inc. ($GEV) → Maintained Overweight by Morgan Stanley, target raised to $511 (vs $422)
- Strategy Incorporated ($STR) → Maintained Buy by President Capital, target raised to $522 (vs $407)
Neutral
- Nike, Inc. ($NKE) → Maintained Outperform by Evercore ISI, but target lowered to $75 (vs $97)
- O'Reilly Automotive ($ORLY) → Maintained Overweight by Wells Fargo, target reduced to $103 (vs $1550)
Downgrades
- Akamai Technologies ($AKAM) → Downgraded by Zacks to Underperform, target lowered to $66 (vs $87)
- Microsoft Corp. ($MSFT) → Downgraded by Baptista Research to Hold, target at $525
- Mid-America Apartment Communities ($MAA) → Downgraded by Raymond James to Market Perform
Conclusion & Key Events
To Watch Today:
- Jerome Powell's testimony (4 pm)
- Case-Shiller and House Price Index (before market open)
- Consumer Confidence (4 pm)
Expected Volatility In:
- Technology sectors (AI, cybersecurity), real estate, energy
- Indexes sensitive to rates and geopolitics (Nasdaq, S&P 500)
Register here
Have a great session everyone
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Stock Coach
