Futures Indices
Dow Futures: +0.1%
S&P 500 Futures: +0.1%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: +0.3%
US 10-year yield: 4.40% (+1 bp)
Markets digest US strikes on Iran and closely watch geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, investor appetite for tech wanes as new catalysts emerge in finance and crypto-assets.
Market Environment
The calm appearance of futures belies rising tensions: US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend reignited geopolitical fears. In response, Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which over 20% of the world's oil passes. While the final decision rests with the Supreme Council, this threat increases uncertainty.
Jim Reid (Deutsche Bank) notes:
"The real issue for the markets is whether Iran will use oil as a weapon, in particular by closing the Strait of Hormuz."
Oil prices surged to their highest since January, before easing slightly:
WTI -0.9% | Brent -1.0%
On the economic front, today’s session will be marked by:
- June S&P Global Composite PMI
- May existing home sales (expected at 3.96M)
Why does this matter?
Rising tensions in the Middle East could trigger a spike in oil prices, keep inflation high, and delay any rate cuts by the Fed. This complicates decision-making for investors, who are already repositioning after gains in major tech stocks.
Stocks to Watch
Sequans (SQNS) +17%
The French-American small cap surges after announcing a strategic shift towards Bitcoin:
- Raised $384M via private placements
- Partnership with Swan Bitcoin
- Maintaining its IoT business
Fiserv (FI) +7%
Scheduled launch of a digital payments platform backed by a stablecoin. Strategic partnership with Circle (CRCL +8%).
Northern Trust (NTRS) +6%
Merger rumors with BNY Mellon. Preliminary discussions between CEOs have reportedly taken place.
Li Auto (LI) +5%
Unveiling of the Li i6, a 100% electric premium SUV aiming directly at the Mercedes GLC, BMW X3, and Audi Q5. Launch scheduled for September.
Estée Lauder (EL) +3%
Upgraded to Buy by Deutsche Bank, target price raised to $95 (+26% potential). Successful diversification outside China.
Tesla (TSLA) +2%
Quiet launch in Austin of its robotaxi service based on FSD, without lidar or radar. A strategic step forward in autonomous mobility.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) -4%
Announcement of a $2B convertible bond issue → Risk of dilution, despite solid AI fundamentals.
Ares Management (ARES) -2%
Acquisition of a 20% stake in Plenitude (an Eni subsidiary), valued at over €12B. Major investment to monitor.
Wolfspeed (WOLF) -11%
Imminent bankruptcy filing (Chapter 11): restructuring $4.6B in debt and securing $275M in financing. Goal: restart operations by late Q3 2025.
Rating Changes
Estée Lauder (EL) → Deutsche Bank: Buy (formerly Hold), target raised from $71 to $95
Evercore (EVR) → Morgan Stanley: Overweight (formerly Equal-weight), target from $175 to $312
FMC Corp (FMC) → Wells Fargo: Overweight (formerly Equal-weight), target from $41 to $50
DraftKings (DKNG) → JP Morgan: Overweight (formerly not covered), target lowered from $58 to $50
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) → JP Morgan: Overweight (formerly not covered), target lowered to $47
Jefferies Financial (JEF) → Morgan Stanley: Recommendation maintained, target raised from $41 to $55
Lazard (LAZ) → Morgan Stanley: Recommendation maintained (underweight), target from $33 to $45
Oracle (ORCL) → CITIC Securities: Hold (formerly Buy), target raised from $186 to $200
Dow Inc. (DOW) → BMO Capital Markets: Underperform (formerly Market Perform), target lowered from $29 to $22
Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) → JP Morgan: Neutral (formerly Overweight), target reduced from $82 to $76
Bright Horizons (BFAM) → Jefferies: Hold (formerly Buy), target lowered from $146 to $135
KBR Inc. (KBR) → KeyBanc: Sector Weight (formerly Overweight)
Conclusion & Key Events
To watch today:
- S&P Global Composite PMI (June)
- Existing home sales (May)
- Reactions to Iran/US geopolitical situation
Expected volatility: Energy, Defense, Tech
To register
Have a great session everyone!
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Action Coach
