US PREMARKET ACTIONS: June 18, 2025
Futures Indices
Dow Futures: +0.02%
S&P 500 Futures: +0.09%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: +0.15%
US 10-year Yield: 4.40% (+1 bp)
Decisive day for the markets! Between persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the hotly anticipated Fed decision, investors are proceeding with caution.
Market Environment
US markets are stabilizing this morning after a red session on Tuesday, impacted by heightened tensions between Israel and Iran and disappointing economic data. Investors are waiting for the Fed’s monetary policy decision, expected at 8:00 PM (French time).
Jim Reid (Deutsche Bank) sums up the mood:
"A risk-off tone is settling over the markets as fears of escalation in the Middle East resurface, particularly regarding possible direct US involvement."
On the macro side, May US retail sales disappointed, especially in the auto sector. Paul Donovan (UBS) notes:
"Anticipated purchases driven by concerns about trade tariffs emptied auto dealerships in May. Import prices also rose, indicating that foreign suppliers are not offsetting the new tariffs."
At 8:00 PM, the Fed will announce its rate decision. The consensus expects no change. But markets will pay close attention to Jerome Powell’s tone, especially after President Trump’s calls for a rate cut.
Why is this important?
The Fed's decision and Powell’s comments could redefine monetary policy expectations for the second half of the year, especially amid uncertain inflation and mounting geopolitical tensions.
Stocks to Watch
Biomea Fusion (BMEA) -25%
Plunged after announcing a massive fundraising (~$40M) via stock issuance and warrants at a highly dilutive price.
UBS (UBS) -2%
Downgraded by Morgan Stanley (underweight vs neutral) due to Swiss regulatory uncertainties that could require an added $24B in capital. Target cut to 26 CHF.
La-Z-Boy (LZB) -2%
Mixed results: revenue beat expectations but profit fell short and forecasts are cautious due to weakness in housing and economic volatility.
Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) -3%
Fell after announcing a $300M private placement in convertible bonds, raising dilution concerns.
Ratings Changes
Upgrades
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) → Outperform (vs Buy) by Baptista Research, target raised from $30.70 to $32.70
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) → Buy maintained by Daiwa Securities, target raised from $225 to $288
Casey’s General Stores (CASY) → Outperform maintained by Wolfe Research, target raised from $442 to $584
Jabil Inc. (JBL) → Strong Buy maintained by Raymond James, target raised from $170 to $230
Lam Research (LRCX) → Buy maintained by B Riley Securities, target raised from $95 to $115
Neutral
Marvell Technology (MRVL) → Neutral maintained by Cantor Fitzgerald, target raised from $60 to $75
Microchip Technology (MCHP) → Hold maintained by Truist Securities, target raised from $52 to $64
On Semiconductor (ON) → Neutral maintained by B Riley Securities, target raised from $40 to $56
Roku (ROKU) → Neutral maintained by Citigroup, target raised from $68 to $84
Cava Group (CAVA) → Buy maintained by Stifel, target lowered from $175 to $125
Enphase Energy (ENPH) → Sector Perform maintained by RBC, target lowered from $50 to $28
International Game Technology (IGT) → Buy maintained by Baptista Research, target lowered from $25.70 to $18.40
Downgrades
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) → Hold (vs Buy) by TD Cowen, target lowered from $62 to $24
Zoetis (ZTS) → Hold (vs Buy) by Stifel, target lowered from $165 to $160
Conclusion & Key Events
Watch today:
- Fed decision at 8:00 PM
- Jerome Powell’s press conference
- Weekly unemployment claims at 2:30 PM
- Monitoring Israel-Iran tensions
Expected volatility in:
- US indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq)
- Financial and technology sectors
- US Bonds (reaction to Fed comments)
Have a great session!
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Equity Coach