Futures Indices
Dow Futures: -0.6%
S&P 500 Futures: -0.5%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -0.6%
US 10-Year Yield: 4.45% (-1 bp)
Markets are digesting a prolonged escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, while investors watch US retail sales and tomorrow's scheduled FOMC meeting.
Market Environment
US index futures are falling this morning as the Israel-Iran conflict enters its fifth day. Despite mixed signals on a possible de-escalation from Iran, tensions persist, with Israel announcing the elimination of a senior Iranian official.
Jim Reid (Deutsche Bank) points out the market briefly regained hope on Monday after rumors of Iran’s willingness to restart talks, but these reports were later denied by Al Jazeera.
Paul Donovan (UBS) notes:
"The conflict doesn’t appear to be exceeding the market’s expectations. Despite the rise in oil, demand for safe havens like the dollar remains moderate."
Another point of tension: Donald Trump left the G7 summit prematurely, fueling speculation about a National Security Council meeting, although he denied any link to the Middle East conflict.
On the macroeconomic front, May retail sales will be published today:
- Consensus headline: -0.5% M/M
- Core retail sales: +0.2% M/M expected
Why is this important?
These figures will provide valuable insight into the resilience of the American consumer, ahead of the Fed’s (FOMC) monetary policy decision expected tomorrow. A marked slowdown in spending could increase expectations for rate cuts.
Stocks to Watch
RUN (-35.27%): Sharp drop in solar stocks after a revision of sector outlooks.
UNCY (-23.51%): Announced a 1-for-10 reverse split.
RDW (-17.06%): Sharp drop after announcement of a $260M fundraising.
GEOS (+12.77%): Contract won with Petrobras for reservoir monitoring.
WLY (+9.24%): Quarterly results above expectations (EPS $1.37 vs $1.27).
ANTA (+5.16%): Solid results with an EPS of $0.28 for $9.65M in revenue.
JBL (+2.59%): Results beat expectations this quarter.
LEN (+2.5%): Strong guidance despite stable margins, positively received by the market.
Recommendation Changes
Upgrades
- CSCO → Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy (target raised from $65 to $73).
- ROKU → Loop Capital upgrades to buy (target from $80 to $100).
- NOBLE → SEB Bank upgrades to hold (target from $22 to $28.50).
Neutral
- CRS → JP Morgan maintains overweight, target raised from $245 to $305.
- COREWEAVE → Jefferies maintains buy, target from $80 to $180.
- ON → Roth Capital maintains buy, target from $50 to $70.
- HOOD → Mizuho maintains outperform, target from $65 to $80.
Downgrades
- RIG → SEB Bank downgrades to sell (target lowered from $2.10 to $1.90).
- SRPT → Baird maintains outperform but lowers target from $60 to $30.
Conclusion & Key Events
To watch today:
- May retail sales (8:30 a.m. EST)
- NAHB housing index (expected at 36)
- Middle East negotiations
- Market reaction to US geopolitical positioning
Expected volatility in:
- Consumer sector (Retail)
- Energy and defensive stocks (geopolitical tensions)
- Tech and semiconductors (macro repositioning)
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Have a great session, everyone
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Stocks Coach
