US PREMARKET ACTIONS : June 13, 2025
Futures Indices
Dow Futures: -1.1%
S&P 500 Futures: -1.1%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -1.2%
US 10-year Rate: 4.36%
Markets under pressure this morning as geopolitical tensions explode in the Middle East following Israeli strikes on Iran. Investors are fleeing risk, despite strong results in tech and retail.
Market Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index: 61
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility): +8.2% (rising sharply)
Market Environment
Global markets plunge after the Israeli army struck several nuclear and military sites in Iran, triggering an immediate response from Tehran with over 100 drones launched at Israel.
Israel has closed its airspace, and a state of emergency has been declared.
"Financial markets had not anticipated such a scale in the strikes. As a result, oil prices have seen their biggest jump since the Russian invasion of Ukraine."
— Paul Donovan, UBS
"The effects of the attack triggered a strong flight to safe-haven assets globally."
— Henry Allen, Deutsche Bank
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down more than 1% in pre-market; crypto and tech stocks are under pressure.
Bond yields remain stable despite rising tensions, a sign of a strong appetite for safety.
Economically, the day is light with the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report (expected at 49).
However, oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty could influence inflation expectations.
Why is this important?
A military escalation in the Middle East, combined with a sharp rise in oil, could reignite inflationary tensions and force the Fed to keep rates high for longer. Enough to reverse the bullish momentum seen in recent weeks.
Stocks to Watch
Top Gainers
RH (NYSE:RH) +20%
Despite mixed quarterly results, the stock soars thanks to an ambitious strategic plan to reduce dependence on China (from 16% to 2%). RH is also expecting a recovery in activity in the second half, despite a 6-point negative impact on Q2 revenues due to new tariffs.
Top Decliners
Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) -2.3%
The group raised its annual forecast after AI-driven results, but investors took profits. The stock declines despite bullish guidance on revenue and earnings per share.
Hut 8 (NASDAQ:HUT) -3%
Crypto stocks collapse as Bitcoin drops below $103,000 amid Middle East tensions. Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Riot Platforms, and other crypto shares also show declines over 2%.
Recommendation Changes
Upgrades
- Darden Restaurants Inc. ($DRI) → Jefferies upgrades to hold (vs underperform), price target: $210 (vs $165)
- KLA Corporation ($KLAC) → William O'Neil upgrades to buy (vs dropped coverage)
- Microsoft Corporation ($MSFT) → William O'Neil upgrades to buy (vs dropped coverage)
- Newell Brands Inc. ($NWL) → JPMorgan upgrades to overweight (vs neutral), target: $7 (vs $6)
- Williams Companies Inc. ($WMB) → Wolfe Research upgrades to peerperform (vs underperform), target: $60.08 (vs $51)
Neutral
- Elf Beauty ($ELF) → B. Riley maintains buy, target raised to $150 (vs $110)
- Oracle Corporation ($ORCL) → Mizuho maintains outperform, target raised to $245 (vs $180)
- Wayfair Inc. ($W) → Piper Sandler maintains overweight, target raised to $61 (vs $46)
- RH ($RH) → BNP Paribas Exane stays underperform, but target raised to $187 (vs $155)
Downgrades
- Fox Corporation ($FOX) → Zacks downgrades to neutral (vs outperform), target lowered to $57 (vs $63)
- Ge Vernova Inc. ($GEV) → Wolfe Research downgrades to peerperform (vs outperform)
- United Rentals Inc. ($URI) → Redburn Atlantic downgrades to neutral (vs buy), target lowered to $760 (vs $960)
Conclusion & Key Events
To watch today:
- Consumer Sentiment Index – Michigan (preliminary June)
- Developments in the Iran/Israel situation
- Reactions of oil, gold, and Bitcoin to geopolitics
Expected volatility in:
- Energy (oil sharply up)
- Crypto (geopolitical risk)
- Tech (profit-taking)
Have a great trading session everyone
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Stock Coach