Futures Indices
Dow Futures: -0.5%
S&P 500 Futures: -0.5%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -0.6%
US 10Y Yield: 4.41% (-1bp)
Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties weigh on markets ahead of key US PPI release.
Market Environment
US equity futures are down this Thursday as geopolitical and trade tensions dominate the headlines. Wall Street closed lower yesterday, despite a strong CPI, dragged down by uncertainties over international trade relations and rising risks in the Middle East.
"For equities, geopolitical risks overshadowed the good inflation news, ending a three-day winning streak for the S&P 500," analyzes Jim Reid (Deutsche Bank).
Donald Trump announced the imminent sending of letters to trade partners setting unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline. Although the market seems used to this kind of announcement, "uncertainty could weigh on investment and employment in the United States in the short term," notes Paul Donovan (UBS).
The US government has ordered a partial evacuation of its embassy in Baghdad after threats from Iran, reigniting regional tensions. CBS News adds that Israel is reportedly ready to launch a military operation against Iran.
Today, investors are awaiting producer inflation (PPI) figures for May:
- Expected PPI: +0.2% M/M; +2.6% Y/Y
- Expected Core PPI: +0.3% M/M; +3.1% Y/Y
The release will be accompanied by the weekly jobless claims report (expected: 242K) and the Fed's balance sheet update later in the day.
Why is it important?
PPI, which complements CPI, offers insights into upstream inflation pressures. Higher-than-expected figures could revive worries over Fed monetary policy and trigger volatility in rates and equities.
Stocks to Watch
Risers
- Oracle (ORCL) +8%: Strong Q4 results, with +27% growth in cloud and an optimistic FY2026 outlook (+40% expected growth in cloud, +70% for infrastructure).
- Dana (DAN) +5%: Sold its "off-highway" business to Allison Transmission for $2.7bn. The net proceeds of $2.4bn will support a $1bn shareholder return program through 2027.
Fallers
- GameStop (GME) -12%: Announced a $1.75bn private placement of 0% convertible bonds, dilutive.
- Boeing (BA) -8%: Crash of an Air India 787-8 Dreamliner. Increased reputational risk.
- Oklo (OKLO) -5%: Raised $400M via common stock.
- Hycroft Mining (HYMC) -24.5%: New $40M stock offering.
- Perpetua Resources (PPTA) -14.5%: Public and private offering totaling $400M.
To watch today:
- PPI Index (May) at 2:30pm (Paris time)
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- Fed Balance Sheet
Expected volatility in:
- Bond markets
- Technology sector (rate-sensitive)
- Defense & energy due to geopolitical context
Sign up here
Have a great session everyone
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Stock Coach
