US PREMARKET ACTIONS: July 31, 2025

Futures Indices

Dow Futures: +0.20%
S&P 500 Futures: +0.85%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: +1.20%
US 10-year yield: 4.35%

Market Environment

US equities are extending their rebound this Thursday, driven by spectacular results from Meta Platforms and Microsoft, which have reignited enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. Nasdaq futures are up +1.5%, while the S&P 500 is gaining +1.2%.

At the same time, bond yields continue to decline: the 10-year rate is down 2 basis points to 4.35%, as Fed rate cut expectations have been revised lower after Jerome Powell’s cautious comments. The Fed chairman reiterated his willingness to wait for solid evidence before easing monetary policy, lowering the probability of a rate cut in September from 70% to 47%.

On the macro side, traders are awaiting this morning’s June PCE numbers (expected at +2.5% Y/Y), as well as jobless claims data (expected at 225k).

On the trade front, Donald Trump’s tariff policy is gaining momentum. According to Goldman Sachs, the announced tariff increases should raise the effective US import tax rate by 9 percentage points in the short term, and up to 14 points once pending measures take effect. Over the longer term, the bank forecasts a rate of 17 points by 2027, which would have a lasting impact on US trade relations.

Annualized customs revenues soared to $320 billion in July, compared to a $100 billion average over the past four years. However, the actual effective rate has so far increased by only 7.4 points, due to implementation delays and “frontloading” effects (massive imports ahead of new tariffs).

Peng from Goldman Sachs notes: “We expect the effective rate to gradually converge toward our estimates as temporary effects fade.”

This tariff pressure could eventually weigh on supply chains and rekindle imported inflation—a risk the Fed will watch closely.

Stocks to Watch

Meta Platforms (META) +12%
Spectacular Q2 results: +22% revenue to $47.5B and +36% net income. Operating margin jumps to 43% despite AI investments. Q3 guidance well above expectations.

Microsoft (MSFT) +9%
Cloud and AI boost Q4 results. Intelligent Cloud segment up 26%. FY26 forecast above consensus, with major investments planned in AI (+$30B in capex).

Applied Digital (APLD) +21%
Q4 losses lower than expected. Accelerating demand for AI infrastructure. CoreWeave extends rental contract to 150 MW, with a potential revenue pipeline of $11B.

Western Digital (WDC) +8%
Solid Q4 results and better-than-expected Q1 outlook. Strengthening its position in AI storage solutions. Announced a dividend of $0.10 per share.

Biogen (BIIB) +4.3%
Alzheimer’s therapy boosts Q2 results, beating expectations. The market applauds strong commercial traction for the new treatment.

CVS Health (CVS) +7.78%
Q2 results above consensus, despite higher medical costs. Double-digit growth across all divisions. Market lauds the resilience of the integrated model.

Comcast (CMCSA) +4.89%
+18.4% growth in US mobile lines in Q2. Continues to gain ground in wireless services.

GE Vernova (GEV) +1.42%
Stock holds up well post-earnings. Recovery continues, supported by renewable energy prospects.

Tesla (TSLA) -0.22%
Stable performance a week after results. Ongoing uncertainties about demand and margins.

Qualcomm (QCOM) -5%
Despite results above expectations, stock retreats. Market worried about lack of immediate catalysts. Strong guidance, but little effect.

AB InBev (BUD) -11%
Q2 volumes down 1.9%, well below expectations. Weakness in China (-7.4%) and Brazil. Management admits lagging behind industry.

Have a good session, everyone.
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Stock Coach
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