US Inflation, the Fed, and Crypto Momentum
Financial Markets: Focus on US Inflation, the Fed, and Crypto Momentum
Monday, August 11, 2025 – Markets are starting the week in a still positive mood, despite a contrasted macroeconomic environment. S&P 500 company earnings reports are almost done: 90% of companies have reported, and over 80% have beaten net earnings per share expectations. Result: markets are holding up, even after a particularly poor non-farm payroll report.
US Inflation: A Key Figure Due Tuesday
Tomorrow, the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be under the spotlight. Expectations: inflation at 2.8%, compared to 2.7% last month. Why does it matter? Because the Fed is caught between two fires:
- Lowering rates to support an economy weakened by disappointing jobs data
- Keeping pressure if inflation remains high
If inflation comes in above expectations, the specter of stagflation could reappear. If it comes in below, markets will be certain of a rate cut as early as September, a scenario already priced at over 70%.
Indices: Uptrend Remains in Place
As long as the S&P 500 stays above 6330 and the DAX above 24000, polarity remains positive. The CAC 40, having moved back above the 7676-point range, confirms a constructive dynamic, even though the 7900-point area is a technical ceiling to watch.
Gold, stuck between 3280 and $3430, keeps a bullish bias. Pullbacks remain buying opportunities. As for the euro-dollar, it faces moderate downward pressure.
Cryptocurrencies: Ether Still Leading
Since mid-July, the bullish recovery scenario on Ethereum has unfolded as planned. After crossing the $4000 mark, the target of $4800 around August 15th remains relevant. Ether’s relative strength versus Bitcoin and other altcoins remains impressive. For active management, the targets are clear:
- Solana above $200
- AAVE above $300
- Ray near $4
Consolidation phases are not a sign of a reversal, but rather a natural market breather.
Strategy: Discipline and Active Management
The watchword remains active management: take partial profits (TP1, TP2) at key levels to free up capital and reposition on pullbacks. Holding a long-term position on high-conviction assets (like Ether) lets you benefit from the underlying trend while reducing risk.
The classic mistake? Keeping 100% of a position and hoping for a continuous rally. Discipline also means knowing how to take partial profits to buy back later.
Conclusion
The week will be marked by the US inflation figure. Whatever the scenario, the key is to adapt positions without panicking, relying on technical zones and active management. For cryptos as well as indices, the underlying trend remains bullish but selective.
See you tomorrow for the post-CPI analysis, and until then… discipline, patience, and trust in your plan.
Xavier Fenaux
July 11, 2025