US Inflation Hotter Than Expected | Major ETH Take-Profit Reached at $3,100
By Xavier Fenaux – July 16, 2025
A Tumultuous Context After July 14th
Hello everyone,
It's Wednesday, July 16th, two days after Bastille Day, and believe me, the date matters! After waking up very early this morning to review the markets, I'm sharing here a summary of what I’m seeing, from US inflation numbers to portfolio management and strategies to adapt in this volatile environment.
US Inflation: The Key Number That Changes Everything
Yesterday at 2:30 p.m., markets were awaiting the US inflation rate. The expected figure was 2.6% year-over-year, already up from 2.4% the previous month. Result: 2.7%!
The consequences:
Inflation higher than expected → pressure against rate cuts, the market now anticipates 2 cuts (not 3) by end-2025
Core CPI (excluding food and energy): slightly better than expected at +0.2% versus +0.3% expected – some consolation, but overall inflation dominates the discussion
Market Reactions
US indices (S&P500, Nasdaq): Still strong but hesitant, with profit-taking after records
US Dollar: Immediate rebound, logical given the higher inflation
Euro-Dollar: In a downward trend, I favored selling at the news release, which allowed me to quickly take some profits (TP1) before going for a more ambitious target
Gold & commodities: Gold is in wait-and-see mode, to be watched if long rates tighten
Today’s Strategies: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Polarities
The key, as always: identify market strengths and weaknesses.
Strong indices (S&P500, Nasdaq) hold up better, even when others fall
Weak indices (CAC40, European indices) remain under pressure
Concrete example: the CAC is stuck between 7,600 and 7,900 points, with no real direction – I favor selling Europe and buying dips on strong US indices
Technical Focus: The “Abandoned Baby” Pattern on the CAC
Wednesday the 9th, Thursday the 10th, Friday the 11th of July: a big green, an upward gap, then a big red with a downward gap
This psychological reversal pattern calls for caution and confirms the French market’s weakness compared to the US
Corporate Earnings: Banks Kick Things Off
JP Morgan, Citi: Overall solid results, though some segments (like investment banking) are slightly down
Consumption: The consumer is still present, margins are holding up for now
Crypto: ETH $3,100 Target Achieved!
Great personal satisfaction: after months of work, my major target on Ethereum was reached last night, right at $3,100.
A reminder of the strategy:
🪙 Gradual accumulation from $1,400 during the correction
Added at intermediate levels ($2,400, $2,600…) aiming for $3,000 and beyond
Active portfolio management: trimmed 30% exposure to secure gains, while staying flexible and ready to reallocate to other opportunities (Bitcoin, Solana, BNB, etc.)
Key Points Moving Forward
Reducing exposure does not mean turning bearish
Managing a portfolio, even a modest one, is above all about exposure and dynamic reallocation
There are still opportunities on dips in major cryptos, but caution is needed: consolidation phases can last several weeks, as shown by the “copy-paste” from 2024 to 2025
The Importance of Psychology and Process
This morning, beyond performance or hitting targets, what matters is the process:
Why we trade, why we invest, and how to navigate doubt or frustration
Many of you message me, sometimes quietly, to share your journeys, your highs and lows – thank you for that!
Lifting each other up, moving forward together, staying the course even in tough times, that’s the InteractivTrading spirit
Outlook and Plans for the Day
Track US production data at 2:30 p.m.: a rise would confirm an inflationary context and could weigh on indices and strengthen the dollar
Favor buying strong US indices on dips if reaction is positive (notably S&P500 at 6,230)
Watch weak European indices for potential short sales
Waiting on gold and oil
Monitor corporate releases for strong/major signals
Conclusion
Thank you all for your loyalty, your feedback, your trust, and your energy, driving me to keep delivering timely, concrete content that sticks close to market reality.
See you tomorrow morning on InteractivTrading and in the afternoon for a crypto focus if the market gives new signals.
Have a great day, happy trading, and stay the course!