Week of October 13-17, 2025 — US Markets Review & Outlook
General Overview
The US markets are set for a busy week packed with macro and microeconomic catalysts:
- Start of bank earnings season (Citi, JPM, GS, WFC, BAC, MS).
- Key releases: inflation (CPI) and retail sales.
- Multiple Fed member speeches could influence rate cut expectations.
Monday, October 13
Bank Holiday (USD) → decreased volume.
Volatility watch:
RGTI (Rigetti Computing), USAR (USA Rare Earth)
IPO Watch: HW Electro KK (HWEP) + lock-up expirations for STUB, NTSK, WBI, PTRN, CHOW.
Dividend ex-date: ABBV, ABT, DAL, CL.
Events:
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
- Nvidia (NVDA) @ OCP Global Summit → focus on AI & datacenters
- Oracle AI World & Cloudflare Connect → AI, cybersecurity, cloud
- 12:10pm: Philly Fed (Anna Paulson) speaks at NABE
Tuesday, October 14
6:20pm: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks — week's key event
Expected earnings: ACI, BLK, C, DPZ, GS, JNJ, WFC, JPM
Other events:
- Microsoft (MSFT) ends support for Windows 10 → potential catalyst for DELL, HPQ, LNVGY, BBY
- Start of Salesforce Dreamforce 2025 (CRM) with Pichai (GOOG) & Niccol (SBUX)
- 3:30pm: Susan Collins (Boston Fed) speech
Wednesday, October 15
2:30pm: Empire State Manufacturing Index (USD)
8:30am: September CPI (key data)
Expected: Core CPI YoY +3.1% (unchanged)
High sensitivity in USD, yields, and gold.
Earnings: ASML, BAC, MS, ABT, UAL, PNC
Other events:
- Beige Book (8:00pm)
- Waller (Fed) talks AI @ DC Fintech Week
- Investor Days: HPE, Dollar Tree, Brown-Forman, Salesforce
Thursday, October 16
2:30pm: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index + Retail Sales (core & headline)
Major economic data:
- Core PPI / PPI m/m
- Core Retail Sales m/m
- Unemployment Claims
- Retail Sales m/m
➜ Key data to gauge US demand resilience.
3:00pm: Waller (Fed) returns to the mic
Earnings: TSM, SCHW, USB, CSX, TRV, MAN
Investor Days: Veeva Systems, Jefferies Financial
Friday, October 17
8:30am: Housing Starts (new homes)
Testing the strength of the US real estate sector despite still-high rates.
Earnings: AXP, TFC, ALLY
Start of Fed blackout ahead of next FOMC
Start of TwitchCon 2025 → indirect impact on AMZN / gaming / ads
In summary:
A pivotal week with the CPI + Powell + US banks combination.
Implied volatility on indices should rise, especially before Thursday.
Traders will watch bond market reaction and AI stocks after Nvidia’s OCP Summit.
