Trump vs 30% EU, Inflation & Market Resilience: The Calm Before the Storm?
Tuesday, July 15th, 6 a.m. I hope you’re enjoying your vacation! Today, major focus on U.S. inflation at 2:30 p.m.: the market is expecting 2.6% year-over-year (vs. 2.4% last month). This is THE number that could spark a move, especially in the SP500 and EUR/USD.
Impulse Strategy: How I Play the News
In practice, we prepare the famous "impulse strategy" Inflation below 2.6%? Indices (SP500, Nasdaq...) could jump, the US dollar might fall, EUR/USD could rise Inflation above 2.6%? Opposite scenario: risk assets under pressure, US dollar strengthened, EUR/USD drops Everything will depend on the market’s instant reaction Personally, I’m closely watching the SP500 and EUR/USD, where volatility is likely to spike after the release
United States: Indices Still Bullish Despite Uncertainties
Despite the wait, U.S. indices remain clearly bullish. The Nasdaq is flirting with record highs, the SP500 stays strong, and the Dow Jones is less dynamic but still positive above 44,350. Polarity remains positive in the US... for now.
Europe: Cautious Market, Trade Tensions & Negative Polarity
In Europe, the mood is different. Donald Trump is threatening 30% tariffs on European imports from August 1st unless a deal is struck. Markets remain cautious, believing the EU will negotiate, but tension rises by the day.
European indices (CAC, DAX) are trading below key levels: DAX: below 24,300, negative polarity CAC: following DAX weakness
Key takeaway: if US markets pull back, Europe drops faster... and when the US stagnates, Europe also underperforms.
US Yields, Dollar & Gold: Signals to Watch
US 10-year yield: slight uptick to 4.43% (nothing alarming below 4.70%) US Dollar: slight rebound, awaiting the inflation number Gold: rebound from the $3,245-3,281 buy zone, still in a mid-term bullish range. My strategy: buy the lower end, aim for the breakout, just like with cryptos.
Earnings Season: The US Companies’ Parade Begins
This week kicks off major earnings in the US. Banks are up first: JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America... plus Netflix, Pepsi, Alcoa, ASML, Johnson & Johnson. The real issue isn’t just results, but especially the outlook in the context of tariffs, the slowdown, and inflation.
These reports are a concrete barometer for US spending and economic strength. Watch especially: American Express and retailers that gauge US consumer confidence.
Crypto: Record High, but Caution on Volatility
On the crypto side, Bitcoin hit a new high at $123,000 before consolidating at $117,000. No reason to worry: as long as the H4 50MA holds, the bullish trend is intact for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most altcoins. I took some profits on certain positions (TP1 on Hype, Cake, etc.) but I’m sticking to my long-term strategy. Target still in sight for ETH at $3,100 (almost reached).
For me, the key is to stay consistent, build one brick each day, without getting scattered or panicking at every market move.
This Week’s Takeaways
US inflation at 2:30 p.m. will set the pace: strong move expected on SP500 and EUR/USD US indices remain bullish, but beware of turbulence if inflation surprises In Europe, extra caution: negative polarity, fragile market while tariff threats linger Yields, dollar, gold, and cryptos: all in wait mode, but the overall dynamic is still constructive US earnings will set the tone for the quarter, look beyond the numbers, focus on outlook and executive confidence
The Key to Performance: Consistency, Discipline, No Distraction
Markets reward those who lay one brick each day, not those who run everywhere. When in doubt, stay focused, follow your plan, and don’t give in to collective panic.
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See you soon,
The IVT Team
July 15, 2025