The US/EU Deal, Stagnant Cryptos... and What I Tell Myself When I'm Tired.
Hey Morning Mooders! Hope you're feeling full of energy this morning, because as for me... well, how can I put it... it's a bit more complicated than usual! It's Tuesday, July 29, it's 6:40 a.m., and I won't lie, I had a rough night. I'll talk more about that at the end, so I don’t kill the mood right from the start.
But regardless of the fatigue, my key word today is discipline. You could say, "Yeah, but you need to rest..." Nope! We all have 24 hours a day, and turning this day into a good, disciplined one is one of my goals. It's in these moments, when things are a bit rough, that we need to be strong, learn the most, and make sure not to let our guard down, especially in the markets.
Market Watch: Patience and Vigilance
No major macro-economic stats on the agenda today. The "big stuff," as they say, is coming tomorrow.
Instead of streaming tonight on Twitch (and a double live, since I already did one this morning on IVT—basically, it’s a packed day for me, despite the crappy night), I suggest rescheduling the live with the Fed to tomorrow evening on Twitch. Just look up my first and last name and you'll find me easily.
Tomorrow is going to be busy: we'll have ADP, the US GDP, and of course, the Fed tomorrow night from 8 p.m. Hang tight!
Earnings Releases: The Show Continues
Company earnings start trickling in today. Tonight, before markets open, we’ll get the heavyweights: UNH, Ns, PayPal, Sofi, Boeing, UPS, Petit Fahy, Mer, Procter, Ngombel.
And tonight, after market close, get ready for Visa, and for coffee lovers (not me, but coffee in general, just not Starbucks!), there will be Starbucks. Also, Seagate and Booking Holdings. So, plenty of reports coming out today.
And that’s just the beginning! Wednesday, we get the biggest names with Facebook (Meta) and Microsoft. And Thursday, it’s Apple and Amazon. We'll surely revisit that soon.
The EU-US Deal: Europe "Submission"?
In terms of news flow, there was that agreement between the US and the European Union. At first, everyone was like, "Yeah, great! We get our super deal at 15% instead of 30%!"
But we saw the market reaction in Europe... -0.43% for the DAX, -1% for the CAC! Why? Because in this deal, as mentioned yesterday morning, in exchange for 15% instead of 30%, the EU committed to buying $750 billion in US energy and $600 billion in US economic investments, including the military sector.
All in all, it's a pretty unbalanced agreement. It’s nice not to be at 30%, but 15% is still way more than the historic 1 or 2% with the US. So yes, lots of US purchases, in both energy and investment. Europe basically "folded".
And it goes even further. François Bayrou, who is about as neutral as they come (again, I’m not being political here, but everyone agrees he's centrist and not prone to speaking out for nothing), even he tweeted—I'm looking for his exact tweet: "A dark day, when an alliance of free peoples, gathered to assert their values and defend their interests, submits." Incredible! Even he said the deal was unbalanced, even called us submissive.
Honestly, that’s my takeaway too. Once again, agree or not, I’m not into politics, I hate it. I always use quotes because talking about politics makes people mad. Guys, relax a bit!
I thought it was "funny"—well, maybe not funny, but you get the point: the market reaction was pretty hesitant. At first, it looked like things would "pump," but right at the open, I warned on IVT about the DAX: careful with 24,500, it’s a resistance zone, the top of the range for almost a month. We could easily fail, so be cautious at the open. We’ve lost 500 points since then.
My DAX Strategy: Discipline and Risk Management
In all honesty and transparency, I said that for a positive setup, I'd prefer to buy around 24,300. We got back there, and I bought in at that zone on the DAX, half a position.
Money management and educational note: When you make plans or take positions, you shouldn’t take the same size across all assets. The DAX is at 24,000, the CAC at 7,800. Don’t take the same position size, or the same risk per point. If you use the same euro-per-point on the DAX and CAC, you end up assuming three times more risk on the DAX than on the CAC. That’s why some people take a long time to realize why the CAC doesn’t move much in points: it’s worth 7,000! It’s normal!
Second: position size should fit your timeframe. It doesn’t mean you go all-in long-term. It just means intraday strategies use smaller sizes than swing trades, which are based on bigger daily, weekly, or even monthly levels. Intraday means intraday fluctuations, so you won’t use the same size as a medium/long-term portfolio. Educational parenthesis over.
So we got back to 24,300. I saw a few positive signals and entered half a position. Why half? It was Monday, there was volatility, the deal wasn’t accepted well after the open, and above all, I didn’t have strong positive signals. I’m waiting for the market to prove me right above 24,350. If it breaks 24,350, I consider the market is confirming my view. Then I’ll add to my position, really "work" the long side.
That didn’t happen. We got back to 24,300, saw the first positive signal, went in with half a position. Had to add if we moved above 24,350. Nothing. So, I took a loss on half a position on the DAX. Done. Didn’t wait for the end of the day—my invalidation zone for the long setup at 24,300 was below 24,250 or 24,200, about 100-150 points. So I "burned" half a bullet.
I think it's good to have two bullets per plan. One is too little—if you’re wrong, plan’s gone. No need for eight either; otherwise, it’s overkill! If you miss eight times, you should stop before that; you’re out of sync. It’s OK, just have the humility to say, "Okay, I’m wrong, time for a reset." If you can’t, go pick some raspberries or blueberries, get some air, go run for an hour. Trolls may throw stones and say, "Running sucks!" No, it’s great for clearing your mind and moving on. Don’t wait for eight stops to figure out you’re having a bad day. That’s why the two-plan strategy.
Europe’s Weakness vs. US Strength
Overall, this 24,000 zone on the DAX is where I’ll be looking to buy calmly. We'll see how it goes today. We’re in a downward flow, engulfing bearish candle, DAX down 1%, but we’re back at this low area. The opposite of yesterday when we were at the top. We sold the news, said it wasn’t a balanced deal—didn’t want to say "submission".
I’ll set a little alert above 24,000. If the market reacts well, it looks interesting, especially as we come back to the DAX’s daily 50- and 20-moving averages (on Cash), a zone where the market reacted very well on June 19, 20, and 23, and again for almost a month and a half.
But, where we should be more careful: Europe is weaker than the US. The US stays super strong. Full green lights. Bam bam bam, steamrolls through. All good. We've got AI. This week, it’s the Fed, company reports, GDP, NFP. For now, the underlying trend is still positive. So, green light for the US. 44,600 on the Dow Jones is the key level. NASDAQ around 23,200. On the S&P 500, same as always, 6,350. As long as we’re holding there, it’s green light, nothing more to say.
So, US stronger than Europe. Watch out for net buying. If Europe doesn’t react, especially the DAX at 24,000, it’s over.
The CAC 40: Act in the Moment
Oh right, on the CAC, hadn’t talked about 7,900, 7,700. What did we say when we saw it’s been in this range for three months? 7,900 isn’t the top. You can’t take a small short just for some points. We did 7,900—7,800. There you go, 100 points to take. At least a TP1, maybe TP2 down to 7,700. Then back to 7,700—there’s the buy. Easy, it’s been three months, we’ve discussed this. "Oh, but I missed it, didn’t have..." No, no! You have to act in the moment, otherwise, it’s pointless. If not, wait for the next one—maybe in a week, two weeks, three, four, I don’t know. That’s why you need to act when the market gives you a signal, not randomly or in the middle of nowhere.
Nikkei and the Redollar: Moves to Watch
Also weakness in the Nikkei. Japan, always between the US and Japan, Nikkei gained 5% and has lost half already. Been choppy constantly. The momentum is fading.
The redollar, I’m short here. Bearish move, weekly bearish engulfing. On the daily, a bearish move. Below 1.1650, I’m working short.
The dollar index is reacting at that big 2022 zone. Seen this coming for a while—reacting at the lows. Dollar index is the dollar versus a basket of currencies. It’s reacting, so I have to re-enter on the short side. That’s done for me.
Commodities and Cryptos: Calm Seas, but Stay Alert
US yields are flat. Gold is also flat. Still waiting for 3,280. Remember, a month ago I bought that zone. We talked about it—3,245, 3,280. My target was 3,430. Made 3,430, down 130 points since, at 3,315 this morning, precisely 3,316. Waiting for a bit lower. Just working calmly as the redollar moves. I’ll open a small position. DAX, I’ll see if it reacts. US indices are still green, but not enough of a pullback to work from here. So, steady as she goes. Lots of stats, macro data, company reports, and the Fed this week. So, planting seeds, taking it slow.
As for the crypto market, hands tied. Calm, positive, yes. Is it ultra-positive? No. Am I trading hard? Absolutely not. Did a big update last week saying I slow down while others accelerate. Published July 24. Title: "Crypto: Time to Slow Down"—available as a podcast. Go back and listen, and you’ll see that, a week later, we can say we were "right," in quotes. The point isn’t to be right—I don’t care about that. But to say that today, my mindset is the same. You have to hold steady. I lightened up some positions—on altcoins, on the market, on the floor, whatever—but kept the rest, and above all, not getting overexcited. I did my reduction as part of active management. That’s the right thing, was the right thing, and today still is: say "ok, it’s still positive, holding the 20D MAs, some are holding the 50H4 MAs." Bitcoin still looks great. Been consolidating 20 days, between 116k and 120k, more likely to break above 120k—no problem. But today, on others—you saw AAVE, Sunday it was $305, two days before was $270. You might think, "Should’ve bought! Okay, buying now!"—then the next day, you’re immediately at -8%. So, relax. The market’s just taking a breather, digesting, and saying, "This week is full of stuff." The US remains strong. We’re strong too. No need to accelerate—we already did that before. Let’s conserve some fuel, keep some in reserve, stay focused, etc.
Discipline Above All: The Rough Night and The Lesson
That’s about it for my update. And I’ll end with the tough topic: that sh**ty night. I don’t know why, but I barely slept at all. Now you might say, "So, you should rest and be careful..." No, no! It’s in those moments that I want to—actually, I don’t even think about it—I just feel I have to keep my discipline. Be even more disciplined, even more focused than when things are easy. Because that’s exactly when you mess up.
Doesn’t mean you make mistakes, but the odds are higher. Fear of failure or loss keeps you from winning. So I’m not afraid of being wrong or making mistakes. Maybe today, my plan and daily goals mean I take an hour to rest. But really rest—not scrolling social media, not watching TV. For me, TV’s not restful—I hate it. That’s just my choice. Some will throw stones at that, like yesterday: "I’d rather watch TV than go running, it’s important to rest." Yeah, whatever, your life, that’s up to you. I’m just saying what I do. I find running helps. So, I’m not going for a run when I’m super tired, thinking, "No, don’t fall into that trap either."
I just wanted to say that sometimes, we get more tired than usual. You have to listen to yourself, have the humility to say, "Okay, that’s where I’m at—just like in the markets." Take your time instead of repeating "I’m tired..." Instead, make an action plan. How do you rest? Go to bed earlier, spend less time on your phone, less screen time, rest for an hour, do something actual. "But..."—no, no, no. No excuses. "I’m tired, so I won’t watch the market or do anything today." Okay, but what if today everything happens? If you’re right about the market, as you anticipated yesterday—does fatigue excuse missing out? Absolutely not.
I was talking about this with someone yesterday. Watched a video or podcast, whatever, about someone else talking about this, and I totally agree—it’s not about motivation, it’s about discipline. Today, I’m disciplined. I did my analysis, shared it with you—it’s part of my discipline goals. I could have done nothing, stayed in bed. What would have happened? Now it’s 7 a.m., I’ve been up and working for 2.5 hours—even tired, even after a rough night, etc. What if I hadn’t gotten up? When would I have? I never get up late. 8 a.m. is nearly the end of the day for me! Psychological, maybe weird, but for early risers—isn’t it like your day is ruined if you wake up late, even on the weekend? If I’d gotten up at 8, then got going—what, maybe 10:30 a.m.? The rest of my program is off. It’s wrecked for me. So I’d rather get moving, "Okay, set your schedule, let’s go." Maybe adjust today, rest earlier. But do it concretely. Stay disciplined. That’s the difference.
Right now, there’s the women’s Tour de France. I find it interesting. I don’t even own a bike, just to be clear! I don’t cycle—find it dangerous. But anyway, that’s just me. Even in the Tour, men’s or women’s, don’t you think they get tired, every day? "Yeah, but..." It’s all in your head. I once took part in a "special operation," with tough challenges and all. I saw an interview where, out of 200 people, only 3 or 10 would make it. The dropouts aren’t because "you suck" or got injured—over 90%, 95%, even 99% quit because it’s all in the mind. Of course you’re tired, you hurt, it’s hard. But they give up. See what I mean? So, sometimes you don’t feel like it. Sometimes you’re down. All the more reason to be more disciplined than before! Today, I’ll be sure to write this down. It might require even more energy, double-checking things 2-3 times. If I take a position, it’s not just for petty gains or losses—I’ll have to double-check and focus on the method, on discipline. It’s a checkpoint. Okay, let’s go, but I accept the risk. Today, no, there’s no weakness, no excuses. You’re tired? Doesn’t matter. So, adapt your plan, make concrete action steps. But stop saying "I am (just) disciplined."
That’s all I wanted to share today. And if I say this to you, I’m saying it to myself just as much. Sometimes we’re not superhuman, just trying to "level up" and do better each day—better than yesterday, at least.
Strength and honor to all! Let’s try, together, to be better than we were yesterday. Ciao!