The Economy Slows Down... but the Market Doesn't Care (for Now) - How to Handle Criticism?
On Thursday, June 5th, 2025, at 10 a.m., I'm sharing my analysis of a day packed with macroeconomic events. Between yesterday's disappointing US job numbers and today's much-anticipated ECB decision, I see financial markets operating in a complex but impressively resilient environment.
My technical analysis shows markets keeping their "green hats" on despite concerning economic fundamentals. This disconnect between economic reality and market sentiment is one of the most interesting trends I'm watching right now for my trading and investing strategies.
US Job Numbers: An Alarm Bell I'm Watching Closely
ADP: A Historic Disappointment That Changes the Game
Yesterday, we received the ADP private sector job report, and I must say, it's disastrous. With only 37,000 jobs created versus the 110,000 expected, this is the weakest figure in two years. Frankly, these results are "awful"—excuse my language, but that's what these numbers are.
This poor performance is due to several factors I'm watching: persistent trade tensions, ongoing trade wars creating uncertainty, and above all, the extreme caution from companies facing a lack of economic visibility. High interest rates, even though they've relaxed a bit recently, are still weighing on hiring decisions.
ISM Services: Confirmation of My Economic Concerns
The second bad number I noted concerns the ISM for services, which fell below the crucial 50-point threshold for the first time in a year. This contraction in the services sector confirms what I've observed about the US economic slowdown. Companies are dealing with higher costs, lower new orders, and above all, a lack of visibility pushing them toward caution.
This reminds me of this week's manufacturing ISM, which also came in at 48.5 versus 49.3 expected. All these indicators are painting a concerning economic picture that I'm watching closely for investment strategies.
"Good News, Bad News is Good News" Explained
Paradoxically, I see that the market is now adopting the "good news, bad news is good news" principle. If the economic numbers are bad, it might push Jerome Powell and the Fed to cut rates faster. I appreciate Powell's smartness in keeping ammo, not immediately yielding to Trump's pressure, and preserving Fed independence.
This strategy now gives the US central bank room to maneuver. I note that expectations for rate cuts have dropped from 4 at the year's start to just 2 now, which seems more realistic in the current climate.
My Current View on Indices: Resilience With Caution
US Indices: My Monitoring Levels
I still classify the main US indices as "green hat," though personally, I have no desire to buy at these high levels. Here are my current key levels:
S&P 500: Watching 5,940 as major support. As long as we stay above, polarity remains positive per my technical analysis.
Nasdaq: My key level is 21,500. This index stays supported by tech stocks and AI optimism, especially after Nvidia's great results.
Dow Jones: Here I notice relative weakness. My polarity level is 42,350, with us currently around 42,400. Since May 12, we've stagnated at this level.
International Indices: Mixed Observations
Japanese Nikkei: Negative polarity below 37,800; watching the 37,400-37,450 zone for weakness signals. I'm concerned about Japanese bond auctions, even though the market ignores it for now. I did a full rundown on this—search "Japan IVT" on YouTube.
CAC 40: Completely flat for a month around 7,800. I haven't done anything on this index for weeks.
DAX: Stronger than its European peers, it holds technical levels better.
Tesla: My Active Management of an Iconic Position
Yesterday, Tesla lost 3.5%—no surprise as I'd reduced around $340 a month ago. We're bouncing between $330 and $360, exactly the range I expected.
My Tesla Trading History
A reminder of my Tesla strategy, which perfectly shows my active management philosophy. I started accumulating between $160 and $180 at the start of 2024. When the stock tripled to $450, I gradually reduced on the way up.
Then, when nobody wanted it at $220–$270, I bought back twice. Since then, the stock's up 60% in a month. This contrarian approach works in the long run.
My Current Tesla Strategy
I'm now waiting for at least $450 to possibly reduce more. I still have half my initial exposure. I keep working this huge range that's held since 2021: $160 low, $400 high (rounded).
ECB & The Day's Events: What I'm Expecting
ECB Decision: Rate Cut Expected, But the Speech Matters More
Today at 2:15 p.m., the ECB will cut rates as expected, from 2.40% to 2.15%. The market's already priced this in, so I don't expect big moves.
What really interests me is Christine Lagarde's press conference at 2:45 p.m. Her speech and Q&A will set the tone for European monetary policy decisions ahead.
Circle IPO: An Introduction to Watch
Today also marks the NYSE debut of Circle (CRCL), following its IPO at $31. This is a major event in the crypto world that I'll watch closely.
My Current Positions: Gold, Crypto, and Selectivity
Gold: My Conviction Remains Strong
I'm still long on gold, where we've hit highs over the past week—this supports my diversification strategy with this safe-haven asset.
Oil: A Market Without Clear Direction
Oil keeps disappointing me with its ongoing choppiness. Since early April, we've been stuck at the same point—oscillating between $60 and $66. Not much to do here for now.
EUR/USD: Maintaining My Caution
On EUR/USD, I stay in my selling zone around 1.14–1.15, but not acting for now. Ongoing downward pressure on USD makes me cautious. I don't expect significant rebounds right now.
Cryptos: My Total3 Strategy and Managing Strengths/Weaknesses
My Total3 Pattern Analysis: An Ongoing Discovery
I keep following my Total3 setup, which I developed and which is proving remarkably accurate. Yesterday, I did a full crypto debrief (I'll release it as a podcast for those who don't do YouTube).
I'm still quietly long, and even started gradually increasing exposure early this week—ideally on strong cryptos.
My Current Classification: Strong vs. Weak
Strong cryptocurrencies (above the 50-day MA):
- Ethereum (ETH): I keep my confidence here
- Avalanche (AVAX): excellent technical momentum
- Binance Coin (BNB): very strong, though I already reduced
Weak cryptocurrencies (below the 50-day MA):
- Solana (SOL): I tried to rework it, but it didn’t work. I just don’t “feel” the market—and as I always say, you don’t “feel” markets, you work methodically.
My Method: Moving Averages as Reference Points
Responding to a comment from "DubMat5055" who criticized my use of moving averages, calling them "always lagging." It's like saying "it's raining so things get wet"—that’s literally what a moving average is!
Moving averages don't make prices rise or fall—they're reference points to spot trends and zones of strength/weakness. For cryptos, they give a quick visual check: above = strength, below = weakness.
When I buy Ethereum or Avalanche (strength), they're more efficient—they rise more when the market goes up, fall less when it drops. It's not magic, but it works statistically.
Trading Philosophy: Lessons from High-Level Sports
Inspiration from Champions: Beyond Appearances
I find great inspiration in interviews with top athletes. Recently, I heard Florent Manaudou say he never really liked swimming. Or Georges St-Pierre, MMA champ, admitting he doesn’t like to fight but is passionate about the technique and self-improvement.
It’s the same in trading. My goal isn’t just to make profit (though that's the aim, like winning in sports), but it goes beyond that. It’s about discipline, method, and constant improvement.
My Daily Discipline: Showing Up No Matter What
That’s why I show up every morning, trying to keep you going with me. Sometimes I don’t want to, sometimes the market's just dull, but consistency and discipline matter more than mood.
Like athletes who train even when unmotivated, I keep my analysis routine even when markets stagnate. This regularity is what makes the difference over the long run.
Psychological Management: Criticism and Background Noise
My Response to Negative Comments
I want to talk about a negative comment I got yesterday—not to complain, but to make a vital point about managing "noise" as a trader or investor.
Someone who doesn’t know me wrote that my techniques are worthless and I should question myself. My first reaction: is there anything constructive to take from this? Absolutely nothing.
My Philosophy on Criticism
I apply a simple rule: you’re never criticized by someone better than you. Never. So, a destructive critique comes from someone trying to pull you down—and already below you. That means you’re already above.
This rule applies everywhere: trading, sports, life. Real champions support each other. With Rodolphe, my business partner for 20 years, when he wins, I’m happy; when I win, he’s happy. No toxic competition.
Clara Burel’s Example: French Inspiration
I think of Clara Burel in the Roland-Garros semifinals. The "noise" around her echoes what we all face: "It’s already an achievement," "from #300 to #60 in the world," "enjoy your quarterfinal."
But no! Her goal isn’t to stop there. She’ll go as far as she can, totally relaxed, not knowing where she’ll end up. That’s the mindset needed: focus on yourself and your job—ignore the outside noise.
My Technical Levels to Watch Today
Trading Opportunities I Anticipate
If we see polarity shifts in US indices, especially the Dow Jones below 42,350, I'd be interested in short trades.
The Nikkei is currently trickier to trade. I tried last week—got stopped for no gain/loss. Not the clearest market right now.
My Currency Watch
US 10-year yield is dropping below 4.0%, easing pressure on equities somewhat. I'm still watching EUR/USD in my sell zone, though I'm not opening new trades for now.
Fundamentals: What You Can Control
My Control Philosophy in Trading
Let me end with a key daily principle: You can't control the market, but you can always control your discipline.
You can’t always pick the perfect moment, the ideal timing; but you can always choose to show up. That’s what's most important, and what you build today—even if it doesn’t pay off right away—will take you further than you expect.
A Quote That Guides Me
I love this saying: "We never go as far as when we don't know where we're going." It's exactly what Clara Burel says in interviews: she doesn’t know if she’ll stop in the semis, finals, or win, but she just focuses on what she has to do.
It’s the same in markets. Focus on your work, your process, your discipline. The rest will follow naturally.
Conclusion: Discipline and Long-Term Perspective
Today, I remain vigilant on my key levels, watch the ECB’s decision and especially Lagarde’s speech, and keep my selective strategy on gold and strong cryptos.
My philosophy is unchanged: be consistent, stick to your plans, stay sharp, and move forward. Don’t let outside noise distract you from your goals.
My current positions:
- Gold: still buying
- Cryptos: 60% exposure to strong coins (ETH, AVAX)
- Tesla: waiting for $450 to sell more
- Indices: watching for reversals, not buying at current levels
Strength and honor this Thursday, June 5th!
Find my daily analysis and in-depth strategies on InteractivTrading.com – Podcast available on Spotify and Apple Podcast