The Dollar Collapses, Markets Surge… but the Fed Puts the Brakes on the Party
Hello everyone! It’s Friday morning, 6 a.m., and we’re wrapping up the week with a complete market update. Sure, for traditional markets the weekend is near, but as you know, crypto never sleeps! In fact, last weekend there was a bit of panic, a wave of fear that allowed us to buy some cryptos at bargain prices. Today, they’re giving us between 10% and 25% returns—not bad for a confidence boost!
Geopolitical Easing and Its Impact on Commodities
Free-Falling Oil
As we discussed yesterday, we’re somewhat reassured by this geopolitical pause concerning Iran. Oil was at $77 a barrel, now we’re at $67. That’s a 15% drop in just two days! This real easing in oil prices clearly shows that it was more about posturing than any real tension.
US Dollar Under Pressure
We’re also seeing the US dollar hit new annual lows against a basket of currencies since 2022. This downward pressure on the dollar has been talked about since the start of the year, and it’s only intensifying. Why? Because the market now expects three rate cuts by the end of the year.
Looking at the next meeting on July 30th, over 20% of the market thinks there will be a rate cut. I absolutely don’t buy it! Why? Even with massive pressure from Trump and the current administration to lower rates, inflation just doesn’t allow for it. Employment isn’t dire enough to justify such a move either.
But the market is betting on three cuts: September, October, and December (no meeting in November). Over 43% of the market believe we’ll see three cuts by December 10th. The dollar falls, risk assets rise.
Index Analysis: Europe vs. United States
Dax is Crushing It
Europe is trying to keep up. Rodolph is crushing it with the Dax, working like crazy! We mentioned it last Sunday; Thursday-Friday it was on the 50-day Moving Average, now it’s on the 20-day. That’s the highest weekly close in three weeks.
The area around 18,300 - 18,500 on the Dax—as you’ll remember—is a huge technical convergence zone. It’s holding up very well! Overall, US indexes are positive, so we can continue in this direction.
Cac 40, Our National Goat
The Cac, however, is really the goat! It’s the only index in the world—well, maybe the Stoxx 50 as well—that finished in the red yesterday. It’s just a slight dip (-0.01%) but symbolic when everything else is up.
Why? Carrefour got smashed yesterday, down 8%! Pardon the expression, but I think it’s fair. -8% for Carrefour hasn’t happened in months, if not longer. Some negative analyst reports came out, notably JP Morgan advising underweight. We’re back at 1993 levels for Carrefour! Clearly, buying randomly doesn’t work.
That candle on Carrefour is particularly impressive. -8% on a giant like that—that’s rare. The market’s hitting back hard: OVH got slashed, Worldline lost 40% in one day. These are huge swings, and we’re not talking crypto or scammy altcoins!
Some Solid Performances
On the flip side, Air France is taking advantage: +8% Tuesday, +4% Wednesday, +4.5% yesterday—thanks to falling oil prices and catching up on lost ground. Airlines feel every oil swing and any airspace closure right away.
Alstom also landed an amazing €1.7 billion contract—massive when you know their turnover is €18.5 billion.
Stock-Picking and Sector Strategy
That’s why I believe this year, once again, we can do some stock-picking with equities, but also within asset classes like indexes. There are strong and weak players—you really have to focus on where you feel comfortable.
You can have a 360-degree view to use the funnel strategy: narrow things down, pick the right geography, the right sector within that, and then the star performer within the sector.
The Luxury Example
Take luxury—LVMH is down nearly 40% year-to-date. It dropped another 2% yesterday. I’m thinking: “That’s not normal, everything’s improving, the dollar is weakening…” and yet it’s not working! Not always, anyway.
Generally, the market is reassured, but there are always laggards. Everyone wanted LVMH at 900, now it’s around 400 and nobody does. Maybe this is the timing opportunity.
Personally, I wanted it based on fundamentals, and we’re at interesting levels in terms of timing. That’s why timing matters—better than throwing all your money in at random.
The Karmat Case
Karmat had a very tough time. You know, it’s one of the world’s most advanced heart tech companies. Now, it’s simply out of cash! They’re so broke that on their website you’ll now find a “donate” link—but you don’t even get stock in return! That’s a really desperate situation.
They lost up to 70% in one day (I think it was Monday), closed at -40%, and is still at -40% from last Friday. You have to keep an open mind, but stay as objective as possible in these situations.
My Personal Positions
Euro/Dollar: Stop Loss Hit
I closed my EUR/USD position at a loss as downward pressure on the dollar remains legit thanks to rate-cut expectations.
Gold in My Entry Zone
Gold is entering my buying zone, around 2240-2280, arriving stealthily this morning—currently at 2290. It’s pulling back a little. Risk appetite is high; some say “gold is useless now, people are chasing risky assets.” Even with a weakening dollar, gold prices aren’t benefiting.
2240-2280 on gold could be interesting. Anyway, that’s what I’ll be watching over the coming days.
Economic Data for Today
Yesterday we also got the third estimate for GDP, and it was really ugly! Expected was -0.2% (there are three estimates per quarter in the US), but it came in at -0.5%. Bad news is good news! Why? Because if things are that bad, that puts pressure on the Fed to cut rates due to a weak economy.
At 2:30 p.m. today, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure)—it’s a better-weighted measure of inflation than the CPI, tracking consumer spending. It’s spread more evenly and will be closely watched. Expected at +0.2%.
Cryptocurrencies: Back in the Ranges
The Post-Panic Rebound
On the crypto front, as I said in the intro: I tried to buy the dip when everyone panicked. One billion positions were liquidated last weekend.
I did my best on AVE, SOL, and possibly TERA—though I’m already loaded enough not to buy more on the dips. TERA entry was around $2,100, with a low at $2,113.
The key is to exploit dips, increase positions when panic hits. When there’s a series of red candles, everyone thinks “this is the end.” Today Bitcoin is at 108K—no joke!
Back in the Ranges
We’re re-entering the ranges we’ve been in for two months, whether Bitcoin, TERA, or Total3. The whole crypto market cap is back in range. The weakness last weekend was just a temporary panic: fear, leverage washout, all tied to those leveraged bets being cleared when volatility spikes.
Concrete Example: AVE
AVE, in my view, is a fundamentally and technically strong crypto. It lost 30% since I exited around $300—actually a bit less, $311 was where I sold 70% of my exposure.
Lost 30%, so when it dips, I buy. Why? We’re up 25% since— I’ve trimmed my position and will keep doing so. It’s simple, but requires work, objectivity, and humility.
Why Humility?
Because some cryptos really struggle. Take SUI: I was super bullish early this year, into late 2024-2025. Performance was great; in April I cut 70% of my SUI position in May, after it doubled (from $2 to $4).
Now it’s no longer among the strong performers—I watch the moving averages. As I told Julien, don’t overload with 70 cryptos (70 is a lot, 70,000 is insane!).
Methodology: Notepad and Pen
Really use a notepad and pen, and decide “this is strong, this is weak.” Once you do the work, it applies to all areas—just like sports, through repetition you turn moves and gestures into habits.
It’s the same in markets overall. With habits, you can say “I have polarity, my strong ones, my weak ones. I don’t buy the weak ones, end of story.”
Daily Discipline
After you’ve done the groundwork, be as simple as possible, trust yourself, or else all of that upfront work is pointless.
Get up, work 15 minutes in the morning, 15 in the evening, and 15 at lunch. But who wants to do that? We’d rather, “hey, just watch a Netflix show for 15 minutes.” But I want to learn, I want to understand! Scroll TikTok for 15 minutes? No, I’d rather learn and understand now.
It’s the same in all areas. Read for 15-20 minutes at bedtime daily—you may think “that won’t change my life.” But it will! At year’s end, you’ll have read about ten books. Ten books can change your life, teach and inspire you.
Current Technical Set-Up
This prep work, is important to do every day: whether nothing’s happening, times are tough, easy, or everything’s going well.
Still bullish on cryptos; I think there’s a few more percent to grab. That’d suit me, too! I find the current set-up pretty healthy, especially with a 50% retrace from the surge since last weekend.
As long as we stay above—big support at 2,400 on TERA, even 2,350— if you look at that impulsive Monday candle, as long as we haven't retraced 50% below it, we’re still on track. Everything’s fine, even if we move sideways and it doesn’t double overnight.
We know the crypto market won’t double tomorrow!
Today’s Program
I also made a video that I’ll post today, featuring Porcenpart on mid and small caps—this could interest you if you’re into tech. I’ll share the opinion of their managing director for asset management, which I’ll post later.
Conclusion and Goals
Don’t forget your goals: 2-3 goals a day. 3 is good, 2 is not enough, 5 is too many. 3 is the sweet spot; if you hit 3, that’s a great reward at the day’s end.
Strength and honor to all, have a wonderful day!