1. US-EU Negotiations: Toward a 'Less Bad' Deal Before August 1
The United States and the European Union are intensifying talks to avoid 30% tariffs on European products, originally set for August 1, 2025. The new objective is a compromise at 15%, with possible exceptions for sectors like automotive, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, or wood. Markets responded positively: in Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 recently gained 0.6%, buoyed by this calming climate.
Meanwhile, the EU has prepared preventative countermeasures on nearly €93 billion of US products, to be activated from August 7 if no agreement is reached. This cautious approach strengthens talks without hindering the outlook for a balanced compromise.
2. Market Sentiment: Positive Impact on European and American Indices
Markets have responded favorably to the progress in negotiations:
Europe: indices rebounded, with export-heavy sectors leading the way.
United States: moderate correction followed by a rebound, as investors used each dip as a buying opportunity (“buy the dip”).
3. Tesla: Results Deter Investors, Mixed Outlook
Q2 2025 Results
Revenue of USD 22.5 billion, down 12% year-over-year.
Net profit down by about 16%.
Deliveries dropped 14%, marking the second consecutive quarter in the red.
Gross margin stabilized around 17%, slightly above expectations.
Market Reaction
After release, Tesla shares dropped by about 5% in after-hours; a correction that was expected due to expectations of a tougher quarter.
Strategies and Future
Elon Musk predicts a few tough quarters ahead, linked to the end of federal subsidies for electric vehicles.
The company is working on a more affordable model tested in early 2025, with a ramp-up planned soon.
Progressive rollout of robotaxis in Austin, but no significant short-term revenue impact.
Technological diversification with Optimus robotics and AI, although car sales remain at the core.
4. Google (Alphabet): Strong Quarter Thanks to AI, But Capex Under Scrutiny
Q2 2025 revenue: ~USD 96 billion, above expectations (≈94 billion).
Steady Search segment growth (+11%), booming AI and Cloud (+33% for Google Cloud, surpassing USD 13 billion).
Capex jumped: +USD 10 billion (≈85 billion total), temporarily alarming investors – but long-term outlook remains positive.
5. Crypto: Bitcoin Consolidating Around $118,000
BTC ranging between $117,500 and $118,500 after peaking near $123,000 in early July.
Technical charts (pennants, descending channels, MACD, RSI) indicate a neutral phase, potentially leading to a bullish breakout or downward move.
Beware of “bull trap” signals: too much optimism (overabundance of long positions) could trigger a false breakout, followed by a retracement.
Possible scenarios: pullback to $113,000, or rally to $130,000–$138,000 if key levels are breached.
Conclusion
Global trade: a 15% customs agreement would offer huge relief to markets before August 1.
Tesla: transition cycle – short-term vulnerability but bolstered by innovation (robotaxis, AI, accessible model).
Google: solid, but watch out for massive investments.
Bitcoin: consolidation in progress, caution advised.
Xavier Fenaux
July 24, 2025
