Summer MM - Highlights from the Markets this Week - August 7, 2025
Hi everyone, it's 7:30 AM, I hope you're doing well and ready to tackle this summer day! We're back for this morning mood to review the markets and give you two or three ideas for the days ahead.
The markets exhale after the panic
Overall, things have calmed down since last Friday's big panic. The fear over US jobs data has shifted to anticipation of several rate cuts before the end of the year. The market is now pricing in three cuts, while recession, or even stagflation, was weighing heavily in recent days.
But be careful—a single bad employment number in a month doesn't foretell everything! We're not about to declare a US recession at every weak stat. Yes, the US economy remains under pressure from inflation and tariffs, but the broader trend remains upward for major indices.
Wall Street: holding strong under pressure
US indices are still holding their 5-day moving average, or even catching back up to their 20-day average. The SP500 and Nasdaq remain the strongest in the pack, and the Russell 2000 rebounded exactly on its 5-day moving average. Even the Dow Jones made a nice move at its daily 50-day average. In short, as long as the 50-day averages hold, the market remains supported.
Apple didn’t blow out earnings expectations, Amazon was a bit under too, but no major drop. Some stocks are hurting (like ENH, hit by the trade war), but on the whole, corporate results are holding up and there’s no big wave of downward revisions yet.
Europe wants to keep up, but CAC struggles
On the European side, the mood is less dynamic. France and the CAC 40 remain under downward pressure below 7600 points, while the DAX is trying to stabilize on its flat 50-day moving average—a sign of true neutrality.
CAC is weak, nothing new. The goat is still the goat! In short, Europe tries to keep up, but the US is clearly leading the way.
What to do in this context?
The dollar is easing logically after recent weeks' surge. The Euro-Dollar is rebounding. I'm staying patient on my short position; it’s a medium to long term plan. Yes, there are ups and downs, but the plan wins over short-term noise.
On gold, the buy zone around 3280 reacted again, and price is rising above 3400—proof that clear plans pay off over time.
On indices, things are slow, not many big opportunities. On SP500, intraday scalps are possible, but the longer-term trend is still bullish. No need to force things, especially since there are very few key macro figures this week.
Crypto: consolidation phase, no panic
For crypto, it’s still the same logic: we’re in a consolidation, typical of post-bull run periods. After record highs at the end of 2024 comes consolidation, then alternating small drops and weak bounces.
In this setting, I took partial profits on ETH, AVE, and BNB, but I’m keeping a large long-term bag with conviction. If the market dips again, I’ll add. If it rallies, I benefit from current exposure.
The key is active management, not FOMO or panic. Stay focused on your plan and don’t scatter yourself across 12,000 trades. Be patient—the market sets the pace!
Take the time to move forward, even in summer
It’s summer, no giants are reporting this week, so take advantage of the calm to work on your goals—whether professional, personal, or in your portfolio management.
Making progress every day is better than waiting for "back to school" or January 1st to start. Write down your goals, move step by step, even if it’s just 15 minutes of thinking, walking, or meditating... Consistency is the key, not a New Year's revolution!
Final words
This morning, I keep moving step by step towards my goals. Don't give up—even if things are calm, every little step counts! Write down three goals for the day, keep going, breathe, and enjoy the summer's relaxed energy to prepare for what's next.
Strength and honor to all, and see you soon for the next morning mood!
Ciao!
Xavier Fenaux
August 7, 2025