Red This Morning: Why, and Is It Serious?
The markets continue their pause phase without structural deterioration. After several weeks of gains, American indexes are undergoing a natural consolidation. No collapse to report: key zones are holding steady, and polarity remains positive.
A consolidation without panic
On the S&P 500, the 4590-point level is acting as support. The Dow Jones is bouncing around 45,800–46,100 points, and the Nasdaq is still relying on its 50-hour moving average. Nothing alarming, just the expected breather.
On the European side, the CAC 40 remains below the famous 7,900-point area: an active selling zone for the 42nd time. 7,800 was reached, with momentum intact. The DAX, meanwhile, keeps a positive polarity as long as it stays above 23,160 points.
Moral: no sign of breakdown. We remain in a rational reading, where pullbacks are observed without overreaction.
Fed, rates & valuations
Some recently bet on a sharp rate cut by the end of the year. That anticipation is considered too optimistic, even unrealistic, given Jerome Powell's remarks. The Fed chair emphasized the need for balance between persistent inflation and weakening labor market. He even noted that stock valuations are currently high, which doesn't help support a dovish view.
Translation: don't expect a sudden pivot. The scenario remains one of gradual normalization, not a turnaround.
Macro & geopolitics: a complex cocktail
The market continues to absorb geopolitical tensions (Trump's statements on Ukraine, global frictions), which notably benefit the defense sector. Meanwhile, gold, the dollar, and US rates are rising in unison. Such a configuration can't last forever: one asset will end up giving way.
Note: EUR/USD falls back to 1.0750 after attempting a rebound to 1.0810. Still a seller in swing, with a cautious, step-by-step strategy.
Company Focus: Micron in Force
As for earnings reports, Micron impressed with strong results, boosted by AI-driven demand. This sector support partly explains why tech stocks are holding up despite high valuations and rate pressures.
But beware: when everything’s already priced to perfection, the slightest hiccup can prompt a rapid reaction. Hence the importance of working the levels, not the emotions.
🪙 Crypto: Strategy Intact Despite Volatility
The crypto market, for its part, is showing a kind of surprising maturity. After a red night following a nice bullish candle, the strategy remains unchanged: staged entries on pullbacks, focusing on strong assets. AAVE and ETC remain in the portfolio, positive on recent spike buys. Nier is picking up again. Weak assets below the daily MA are still to be avoided.
Alerts are set on key levels (e.g., $4,180 on Ethereum), ready to react should the market confirm a new run. The aim is not to anticipate, but to follow confirmed recovery signals, without rushing.
Today's Mindset: Motivation vs. Discipline
Sometimes, what's lacking isn't motivation, but discipline. The reminder is simple:
When you’re about to give up, remember why you started.
Yesterday, despite the rain, despite the fatigue, the workout took place. Because in trading, as in life, it’s not the big decisions that make the difference, but the consistency of small daily choices.
Conclusion
Markets are consolidating, but not falling apart. The context remains complex yet readable, as long as we remain factual, disciplined, and gradual. Whether on indexes or cryptos, timing and calmness matter more than rushing.
Next appointment: a complete crypto debrief is available on the YouTube channel. To watch closely: US earnings reports and the continuing moves of the dollar/rates/gold dynamic.