Oracle Soars, the Fed Cools Down, the CAC Stalls. And Me... I'm Annoyed!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOK1ic8SLsg

It's Saturday, 10 a.m. I’ll kick off this recap with a simple question: what truly mattered on the markets this week? As you'll see, it was anything but calm. I was... annoyed, yes, that's the right word. Annoyed by the market's reaction to inflation. I'll explain why. And on the crypto side, I've gradually increased my exposure again, focusing on a shortlist of strong assets.

The sensation of the week

There was no getting past Oracle. Results are up, cloud is accelerating, and above all, the order book is booming thanks to a mega-contract tied to OpenAI’s Stargate project. The stock literally exploded during the session before taking a breather. Meanwhile, Larry Ellison briefly became the richest man in the world. Anecdotal for our portfolios, but revealing: AI remains the nerve center of the battle, and some “old” companies know how to reposition themselves perfectly.

Next, the week was also driven by mergers and acquisitions in commodities, resulting in the birth of a copper giant. Underlying message: despite noise from politics and debt, companies are investing, transforming, and creating value.

Macro and indices: why I'm annoyed

The main event was US inflation. The figure matched expectations but was still up from last month. On paper, that’s not the best news to speed up rate cuts. Yet, the market chose to see the glass half full and buyers stepped in. What frustrates me is that I’d planned scenarios to buy on a “positive surprise.” In the end, no gift, but the market still went up. Moral: believe what you see, not what you think.

Practically, I bought the S&P 500 early in the week, took my profit, then eased off after the inflation news. Sentiment remains positive in the US, no real sign of a reversal, but I refuse to keep piling in blindly after such a run. My reference zones are unchanged: above, I follow; below, I’m on alert.

US vs Europe: two speeds

In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new all-time highs. Sentiment is bullish, 20- and 50-day moving averages are holding, and there was logical consolidation late in the week. Nothing to sell as long as key levels hold.

In Europe, things are more sluggish. Germany is suffering from export woes and low investor morale. The DAX is stuck below resistance that keeps pushing it back; I’ve been tactically selling each touch with discipline. The CAC 40? Stuck for months in a wide range, propped up by a few luxury names but lacking real momentum. I favor patient stock-picking over beta here.

Gold, dollar, oil

Gold is consolidating within a range then resumes its upward trend: logical, with the anticipated drop in the cost of money, political tensions, and the search for safety. The dollar snaps back and forth as bets on the Fed shift. Oil is quiet, with no actionable medium-term signal for now.

Stocks to watch

Tesla remains my strong, active play. Shareholder approval, positive pricing, solid technicals: I’m staying positive as long as the structure holds. Nvidia is ranging again, Google caught a breather after a heavy legal threat dissipated. Elsewhere, I’m watching stocks that confirm above their weekly averages: simple trend markers to separate the strong from the weak at a glance.

Crypto: I’m increasing exposure, but carefully

I told you I’d sold into strength, mainly as I hit my targets on Ether. For the past two weeks, the market has held up. More than that, it’s rebounding. The quadruple top that made me cautious is being invalidated. Conclusion: I’m increasing my exposure, gradually, with no reckless leverage.

My framework remains the same:

Weekly first: one candle = one week, to judge the real trend.
Weekly 20- and 50-period moving averages: upward slope and price above = strong candidates.
“Overhead” alerts: I don’t chase the market, I wait for my signals.

My current favorites: Ether for its solid structure and clean rebounds on support, Solana breaking above its range with averages turning up, Aave building constructively, Chainlink holding its trend levels cleanly. In very active management, I’ve traded Ethena and Hyperliquid on breakout signals. And I set aside those that don’t move when the market rallies: I prefer relative strength over “hypothetical catch-up.”

Method and discipline

Strong US markets: I ride along, but don’t overexpose at the top of a surge. Weak Europe: I prefer tactical sales on resistance as long as sentiment is negative. Gold: buy on dips within trend. Crypto: gradual re-exposure to the strong, alerts ready, cash available to add if the market confirms. Everything else is just noise.

Why all this matters to you

Because your job isn’t to guess the next move, but to be prepared for it. You stay in control by scaling back into strength, reloading after confirmations, and choosing assets that deserve your risk. You read sentiment, respect your zones, and leave your ego at the door. That’s how you get through “annoying” weeks with a smile.

Join us live

I’ll soon be back with live sessions on Twitch. And this Sunday night, we’re doing a special livestream with Rodolphe. We’re switching up the format and platform, spots are limited, sign up and come enjoy a market-themed aperitif with us. We’ll talk timing, active management, strong cryptos, and the back-to-school playbook.

Thanks for your thumbs up and support, it helps me keep this format alive year after year. See you live tomorrow night and Monday morning for the Morning Mood. Take care of yourself and stay in control.

See you soon,
Xavier