Optimistic About Crypto: Why?

Macro: A Calm Climate, but the Fed Still Lurking

On the macro side, there’s no avalanche of statistics this week, giving a bit of a break to traditional markets… and by mimicry, to crypto as well. Attention is focused on the issue of US tariffs: the pause, initially scheduled until July 9, could ultimately be extended, which reassures investors. It could be a sign that Trump might be open to discussion. The markets are in a “glass half full” mood!

As for rate cut expectations from the Fed, the consensus is now betting on two cuts by year-end. Markets seem to be accepting this, and nerves remain in check. Of course, everything could change at any moment, especially with the FOMC minutes set for tonight. But for now, nothing alarming on the horizon.

Crypto Market: Institutions Still in the Game

Big news on the crypto side: Over $200 million in inflows have been recorded on Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Institutions are still entering the market, which shows sustained interest even at historical price levels. Bitcoin maintains a solid dominance above 65% and remains close to its all-time highs (ATH), proof that confidence reigns, even in uncertain times.

Technical Analysis: Consolidation, Building… and a Positive Setup

I always start with longer timeframes: on the weekly, Bitcoin keeps consolidating above its 50MA. Two months of sideways action is a long time, but it’s also a sign of solid building, usually favorable for an upward breakout in line with the previous trend. We saw a big bearish candle quickly followed by a bullish engulfing candle, showing that sellers were absorbed and the market remains resilient.

Same story for Ether: the 50MA holds and the setup remains clean. Underperformance against Bitcoin seems to be easing (without a flippening!), and the trend looks encouraging for those accumulating ETH.

Altcoins remain more volatile and technical. On Total3 (excluding BTC/ETH), it’s the same logic: action-reaction on supports, 50MA and upward sloping trendlines for support, but selection is key.

Market Mood: Patience Pays Off (or Not)

On shorter timeframes (daily and H4), we see multiple signs of compression on several major assets:

Solana: sharp compression under the 50MA, key level to break near $154-155, measured risk but potential acceleration if breakout occurs.
BNB: technical lid at $666, structure getting cleaner on H4.
AAVE: strong recent move, never retraced to 50%, but watch out for invalidation if support breaks.
XRP: still on solid weekly support at $2, though lacking punch in the short term.

The mantra: focus on active management, entries on compression, and above all clear stops. It’s not about going all-in, but about identifying setups where the risk/reward ratio remains reasonable. Also, beware of jumping in too late on assets that have already run far (watch out for FOMO!).

Current Strategies

On Ethereum, for example, I took a position around $2,608 with a tight stop below $2,469. If the move doesn’t go, I accept the loss. This active management (more defensive and in small sizes) lets me follow the market without overreacting to fake signals or overweighting uncertain bets.

For altcoins, selectivity is crucial: it’s better to focus on assets showing strength, rather than those stalling or failing to rebound despite a broadly positive context.

Special mention goes to Hyperliquid: interesting daily setup, small breakout, to be watched above $40. Keep it on the radar, but no rush.

Conclusion: Quiet on the Surface, but Promising Setups

In summary, the crypto market remains solid despite macro uncertainty, institutions are present, and the current consolidation is building healthy bases for what comes next. Summer could bring its share of surprises: the key is to stay nimble, selective, and continue to manage risk strictly.

Thank you for your messages, loyalty, and sharing! Don’t hesitate to share your opinion, your current strategies, or tell me which cryptos you’re in. Let’s keep debriefing together, live.

Have a great day everyone, and see you soon for more crypto updates!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKDGrJnC_p4

Xavier Fenaux July 9, 2025