Markets & Cryptos Drop: What's Going On? Panic or Opportunity? My Mindset

Hi everyone and welcome to this slightly laid-back morning mood, August edition. Yeah, I know, it feels like vacation time, but we're still keeping an eye on things! No usual weekly brief this week, as I warned you: summer is lighter... but we’re not letting go.

What are we doing in August?

Don’t worry, I’m still here: just a slower pace, maybe a morning mood every couple of days. Take some time, ask your questions: it’s now or never! If you’ve got a nagging doubt lingering for three weeks, three months, or even three years about the market, psychology, technique, or just a random whim... fire away! This month, I’ll be doing tutorials or answering your burning questions, just to use this summer vibe to work differently.

Friday, markets took a dive… so what?

Reminder: on Friday, markets took a hit after the NFP (US jobs report) was published. Awful numbers, way below expectations. Funny, isn't it? On one hand, we hope for bad numbers to force Powell to cut rates. On the other hand, when they actually show up... it’s panic! The market, which expected only one rate cut by the end of 2025, is now betting on three cuts. The result? The dollar drops, banks hold up, but indices tumble. Personally, even after 20 years on the market, I keep laughing at this ability to explain everything and its opposite—after the fact. "Oh, that dropped because of this!" Easy…

Earnings season is huge, but everyone’s ultra-demanding

We saw some big earnings: Microsoft, Meta, monster numbers, everyone’s excited. Then Apple, Amazon... not bad, but the markets react negatively. If a company doesn’t do +20% or gives cautious guidance, bam, -8% in the face. Unrealistic expectations, valuations on steroids, all it takes is a grain of sand for things to go haywire. The result? Companies' outlook is blurry. Half are raising forecasts, half are lowering them. It's a 50/50 mood.

We go up by the stairs, down by the elevator

A little humility reminder: markets climb slowly, fall brutally. 2%, 4% drop in one day is scary, but it’s not the end of the world. Look at the moving averages: even weekly, even if the CAC or DAX dropped 15% tomorrow, we still wouldn't be officially in a bear market. So, stay calm, focus on long-term trends, avoid panicking over every wick.

Trading Plan? Step back and wait for real zones

Technically speaking: I’m out of indices this morning. Yes, the US is still stronger than Europe, nothing new. Last week, I struggled with the DAX, made nothing. On gold, though, followed the plan exactly: long wait, zone hit, TP in under an hour. Proof... Lesson of the day: sometimes you struggle all week for nothing and make your month in 3 minutes elsewhere. Stay positive, remember patience, and don’t force things that aren’t working.

Crypto, same thing: euphoria, then the dip

On crypto, I always watch for mass excitement. When Twitter screams “alt season,” I reduce. When things drop hard, I buy a bit: active management, adjusting exposure, nothing wild. For me, the logic stays the same: when everyone’s panicking, keep your head cool; when everyone’s hyped, watch out you don’t end up the turkey at the table.

Conclusion: Keep a cool head

No drama, no panic, stay watchful, adapt, review your plans, and stop trying to explain or justify everything, all the time. We’re used to markets surviving anything: trade wars, rate announcements, disastrous stats... They’ll get over it, and so will we.

So, enjoy your August, recharge the batteries, keep asking questions, and let’s move forward together, calmly, no stress.

See you very soon for the next morning mood!

Xavier Fenaux
August 4, 2025