Inflation: The Shock That Can Tip the Balance - Markets, Fed, Gold, and Cryptos on Alert
Every morning, I wake up early
Not to post a coffee on Instagram, but to prepare my decisions
In markets as in life, it's anticipation, commitment, and the capacity to act that make the difference
Today, we'll talk about inflation, tech, Oracle, artificial intelligence, US markets... and most importantly, mindset
The time for commentary is over, it's time for action
There will always be Monday morning quarterbacks, weather forecasters after the fact
Those who knew everything once it was all over
You and I, we're not like that
We take action
We prepare, we decide, we take risks, we get exposed
And that's where it all happens
The biggest danger? It's those decisions we procrastinate
The ones we know we have to make, but bury in a "I'll see tomorrow"
Good or bad, a decision made is always better than inaction
Macro Data: Inflation as Judge and Jury
Yesterday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) surprised: –0.1% versus the expected +0.3%
Good news, but it's not the key number
The one everyone is waiting for is today: CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Last month: +2.7%
Current expectation: +2.9%
Quick summary:
Inflation < 2.9%: risk assets up, dollar down
Inflation > 2.9%: pressure on markets, possible rate hike
Inflation = 2.9%: neutral, depends on market reaction
Today, the market anticipates:
3 to 4 rate cuts by end of 2025
9% of the market is even pricing in a double cut next week
Oracle: Awakening of a Tech Giant
Historic surge of +35% in a single session for Oracle
Unseen in 30 years
Revenue: +12%
Cloud business: +30%
Order book: +360% year-on-year
Major contract with OpenAI (Stargate): 300 billion USD over 5 years
4 other massive deals announced this quarter
Oracle is becoming a strategic supplier in AI infrastructure
While many thought the company was outdated, it's positioning itself as a key player in the digital future
On the other hand:
Novo Nordisk announces 9,000 job cuts
Inditex reports sales below expectations
Climate is tenser in Europe
My Plan for US Indices: Buy the Dips
Long on the S&P500 since 6485 pts
TP1 and TP2 reached, now around 6530
If we break 6550 with positive inflation surprise: I add more
If we go below 6500 with negative surprise: I turn cautious
Same logic on:
Nasdaq
Dow Jones
Gold (above 3660)
Eurodollar (watch levels around 1.1650)
Goal: follow the movement, not blindly anticipate it
Be ready for both scenarios
Cryptos: Lighten Up, Lock In Gains, Stay in Control
I've lightened up through active management on several strong cryptos:
ETH: TP2 at 4800, currently at 4400
BTC: ATH at 125k, currently at 114k
AAVE, LINK, SUI, CAKE: strategic trims, buy orders placed lower
Today:
The market is holding up well
Bullish signals are taking over again
My plan: reinforce the strong ones if inflation allows
Key Takeaways
We'll never have the perfect moment
What counts is to be ready, have a plan, and take action
Markets reward those who work hard and make clear decisions
Today:
CPI < 2.9% → risk assets up, USD down
CPI > 2.9% → caution, possible consolidation
No matter the number, what matters is the market reaction
Be ready
Have a plan
And above all, stay in action
Want to go further?
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And stay tuned, we'll meet again at dawn tomorrow
By Xavier Fenaux – Morning Mood
September 11, 2025