Historic Records and Market Storm: How to Keep a Cool Head This Summer

A Summer Like No Other

Hello everyone! This Saturday wrap-up comes in summer mode, but without sacrificing regularity—quite the opposite. This year, I’m shaking things up a bit: more content, faster reactions, and a momentum that continues even in the middle of summer. If you’re reading this on a Saturday morning, it means I’ve chosen to go against the grain, bringing this fresh analysis just in time for the weekend. It’s also a good reminder to subscribe and activate the notification bell, because tomorrow—and it doesn’t happen every day!—there will be a brand new guest on the channel to break down some news that shook the markets: the US inflation figures.

US Inflation: The Delicate Balance

We couldn't start this wrap-up without mentioning the US inflation figure released this week. A bit of a cold shower: inflation came in at 2.7%, versus 2.6% expected. It’s not dramatic, but it’s enough to reignite all the speculation about the Fed’s decisions. In this context, it’s hard to imagine a rate cut in July. In fact, the next Fed meeting is set for July 30, and even though several deadlines are scheduled for the end of the year, the idea of three rate cuts is drifting further away. Markets had already priced in a lot, but this number stirred things up.

On the bright side, the producer price index was better than expected for June. Even though last month’s numbers were revised up significantly, at least there’s no new price acceleration at this stage. Perhaps a sign that the inflationary momentum is finally starting to slow.

Wall Street Records: The Earnings Frenzy

This week, macroeconomics was shaped by a flurry of statistics, but also by key corporate earnings. In the US, retail sales blew past expectations, rising by 0.6% versus 0.1% expected. That was enough to push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new all-time highs.

Meanwhile, earnings season is in full swing. JP Morgan reassured investors with solid results and a positive market reaction. In contrast, Wells Fargo took a real hit, losing over 5% in a single session—not because of bad results, but because the outlook didn’t convince the market. It’s a reminder of how quickly markets punish any disappointment, even if, with some perspective, the underlying trend for big US banks remains bullish. The big corporate event of the week was TSMC’s results, the Taiwanese semiconductor giant and key Nvidia supplier. All eyes were on their numbers: they reassured the market (+3.5% for the stock), suggesting good news ahead for Nvidia in August.

Summer Strategy: Staying Alert and Actively Managed

Summer doesn’t necessarily mean a break in the markets. Even far from the screens, there are trades to be made and opportunities to seize, especially in the US markets, where the momentum remains very strong. As long as the indices stay above their technical supports—primarily the 20- and 50-day moving averages—there’s no sign of major weakness. The Dow Jones keeps rising, even if it lags somewhat behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which keep breaking records. Even small-cap US stocks (Russell 2000) are holding up, proof that the underlying trend remains solid.

This climate calls for discipline: there’s no point trying to call a reversal when the signals aren’t there. Stay with the market’s trend, treat consolidation phases as opportunities, and most importantly, avoid overreacting to every headline, every rumor, every controversial tweet—like the one this week suggesting a possible ousting of Jerome Powell by Donald Trump. This kind of noise can cause wild spikes, but fundamentally, the strategy remains unchanged: stick to your plans, your key levels, and don’t give in to emotion.

Europe: Endless Range and Wait-and-See Approach

While Wall Street is sizzling, Europe is clearly lagging behind. The CAC 40, in particular, has been trapped in a tight range between 7,700 and 7,900 points for months. It can’t break out, and every attempt to cross the upper or lower boundary just returns it to square one. Right now, it’s exactly in the middle, at 7,800 as I write, with no decisive direction. The only strategy that seems to work in this environment is to buy at the bottom of the range and sell at the top, without expecting any fireworks.

The DAX is doing a bit better, holding above its moving averages and making forays into new highs, but the momentum is nowhere near as explosive as in the US. The old continent is struggling to keep up, and the gap keeps widening week after week.

Gold, Dollar, Commodities: Patience and Landmarks

The gold market, true to form, has been oscillating in a narrow range for three months. As long as prices stay between 3,280 and 3,445, nothing new under the sun. The underlying trend remains positive, but it’s not yet time for acceleration. The dollar is attempting a technical rebound against the major currencies, but the underlying pressure remains downward. In commodities, I continue to favor platinum, palladium, and of course, gold and silver, all with an approach focused on active management and step-by-step opportunities. Every surge is a chance to take partial profits—never forget to lock them in.

Forex: Discipline and Timing

Euro-dollar remains under watch, especially after the latest US inflation figures. I’ve taken a short position below 1.1660, with progressive targets and strict risk management. In this kind of situation, the key is to set your alerts, let the market breathe, and avoid the temptation to be glued to the screen all the time. Active management doesn’t mean hyperactivity—it’s about discipline and patience.

Cryptos: Noise Returns—Stay Cool

Euphoria has returned to crypto, bringing a flurry of commentary, pseudo-experts, and new “believers” who left the space just two months ago. I’ll say it again: just because everyone’s predicting bullishness doesn’t mean you should get lax. In fact, it’s usually the opposite: the louder the media noise, the more you need to remain rigorous in your approach.

This week, I’ve trimmed some positions, such as ETC, which gained 20% in two days. It’s not the time to get carried away or sell everything, but to apply active, gradual management. Same approach for Ethereum: I’m aiming for ambitious targets while making sure to lock in gains whenever the market offers good exit points. What matters isn’t following the herd, but sticking to your plans—your entries, your exits—and adjusting your exposure based on volatility and trend.

What’s Coming: Next Week’s Agenda

Next week should be quieter on the macro front. Not many major releases, except for Thursday’s PMIs (which, remember, are surveys—not hard data). The ECB will speak, which could move European markets a bit. On the corporate side, earnings season continues with some big names: Verizon, SAP, Coca Cola, Alphabet, Tesla, Intel… Here again, it’s all about vigilance, active management, and adaptability.

Community, Offers, and Summer Vibes

Finally, a quick word about the IVT community: we launched a special summer offer, with no end date but limited spots. As I write, there are about 170 spots left. If you want to join us—whether to improve, find a framework, or connect with fellow enthusiasts—now’s the time. Once the quota’s filled, it’s over, so don’t wait too long.

Conclusion: Discipline, Clarity & Summer Mode

Thanks to everyone for your loyalty, feedback, and sharing. See you tomorrow at 10am for a special show with an exceptional guest, and of course throughout the week as we track the markets together. Enjoy your weekend if you can, and for those working like me this summer, stay on course. In the markets, more than ever, you have to keep a cool head, stay disciplined, and know how to adapt.

See you soon for more,

Xavier Fenaux
July 19, 2025