Fed, Tesla, and Everything Else: Is the Storm Approaching?
Global Context: Opportunities Despite Tensions
The global economy continues to surprise: despite strong trade tensions, US indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs this week. This momentum is supported by strong corporate results and ongoing trade negotiations, notably between the US, Japan, the EU, and India.
Investors are turning to international stocks, which have clearly outperformed US indices since the start of the year, also benefiting from a weaker dollar and growing diversification.
Europe & France: Between Caution and Signs of Recovery
According to the latest PMI data, French private sector activity remains in contraction for the eleventh consecutive month, with a composite index at about 49.6 points (threshold of 50 = contraction). The situation remains fragile in industry (around 48.4), but the services sector is showing gradual improvement (≈ 49.7): a sign that the slowdown is easing.
In the euro area, overall activity reaches 51.0 points, its highest level in 11 months. Manufacturing climbs slightly to 49.8, while services rise to 51.2. Inflation kept in check, some momentum rekindled.
Monetary Policy: ECB Holds Steady
The European Central Bank is maintaining its key rates for now. The environment calls for caution: despite the slight PMI improvement, risks related to the trade war and political uncertainty limit room for maneuver. No imminent monetary boost is expected before September.
Trade & Tariffs: A Possible EU–US Agreement
Negotiations are progressing toward a structured agreement featuring a base tariff of 15% on EU exports to the US, with steel and aluminum terms still to be negotiated. As a crucial early August deadline approaches, this outlook has boosted targeted sector stocks such as automotive, luxury, and pharma.
German companies like Volkswagen are facing significant costs related to tariff measures: declining results, revised forecasts, and local production projects to cushion the impact.
Companies & Key Sectors
Automotive * Volkswagen announces a tariff charge of more than one billion dollars.
- The company is considering producing more in the US to reduce its dependence on imports.
Fashion & Luxury * LVMH holds steady despite an uncertain environment, showing notable resilience in its overall results.
Retail * Carrefour posts a very strong half-year performance, with its shares rising significantly.
Technology * Prospects remain mixed: some players must lower their guidance, impacted by costs and uncertainties.
Implications for Investors
Diversify: aim for a mixed allocation: equities, bonds, geographic regions.
Track technical levels: spot support and resistance levels on indices like the CAC 40, DAX, and Nasdaq.
Favor resilient sectors: staples, services, companies with low exposure to trade tensions.
What to Watch in the Coming Weeks
Decisions by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)
Upcoming PMI, inflation, and employment figures in Europe and the US
US–EU tariff negotiation deadline (August 1st)
Forthcoming quarterly reports from major corporations (notably tech, luxury, automotive)
Quick Summary
International investors favoring markets outside the United States.
In Europe, a fragile recovery is underway, with PMI consolidation.
In France, private activity still contracting, impacted by political uncertainty and weak demand.
Global trade remains tense, but a possible tariff truce is reviving hope for European exporters.
ECB on hold; no rate cuts expected this summer before September.
Conclusion
We are experiencing a fragile but promising recovery phase: markets are gradually factoring in signs of economic improvement, and ongoing trade negotiations could reduce short-term risks. Stay alert to signals from major central banks, PMI readings, your precautionary thresholds, and favor investments in strong and diversified companies.
Stay the course: opportunities exist for those who remain informed, agile, and disciplined.