Disappointing FED, but META and MICROSOFT shine! I'll explain everything!

FED, moving markets, and active management going forward

Hello everyone,

It's 6:15 AM, Thursday, July 31st, and the latest market news reminds us that nothing is ever set in stone. Thank you to each of you: over 1,500 of you joined last night's Twitch live, a record that shows the strength of our community. It was the last Twitch live of the summer, but I'll still be here every morning to share the essentials with you in this Morning Mood.

The FED disappoints, but the macro outlook remains strong

Last night, all eyes were on the FED and Jerome Powell's speech. His remarks were brief and very clear: there will be no rate cut in September. Inflation is rising again in the US, and growth remains at an impressive level, with GDP up 3% in the second quarter, well above forecasts. As a result, markets need to adjust their expectations. The majority of analysts no longer believe in a rate cut in September, and many think there will be only one cut—or even none—by year's end.

Chain reaction in the markets

This uncompromising statement had an immediate impact. The US dollar gained strength, pushing the EUR/USD lower. US indices saw an initial shock before entering their usual digestion phase. That’s the market game: adjust, react, then find a new balance by factoring in economic reality and expectations.

Microsoft and Meta: a show of force

Fortunately, the evening was also highlighted by spectacular company results. Microsoft posted record quarterly revenue of $76 billion, up 18%. Cloud grew by 40%, and the company’s market cap exceeded $4 trillion. Meta (Facebook) was not far behind, with $47 billion in revenue, $18 billion in net profit, and user numbers still rising. Artificial intelligence continues to change the game, especially in advertising. After the close, the markets welcomed these results with impressive gains: nearly 8% for Microsoft, 12% for Meta. These are historic highs.

Opportunities and patience for European indices

On the European side, things are less explosive. Markets follow American moves but often remain stuck in ranges. The CAC 40 has oscillated between 7,700 and 7,900 for several weeks, while the DAX continues to hold above 24,200 points—which is positive. For gold, the $3,280 zone is once again interesting for opening positions, as history has shown that gold can rise even when the dollar is strong.

Crypto: healthy consolidation, leaders to watch

For crypto, the situation is stabilizing. After recent volatility, the market is now moving sideways, but the trend remains upbeat for leaders like Ethereum and AAVE. I remain exposed to these assets, gradually reducing at resistance levels while watching for lower entry points. Active management remains key—avoiding the trap of buying everything blindly or panicking. The day's big crypto update is coming soon on YouTube and IVT, where I'll dig deeper into favored strategies for this market.

Upcoming key events

Tonight, all eyes will be on Apple and Amazon’s earnings. On the macro side, the 2:30 PM release of the US PCE inflation indicator could further influence monetary policy expectations. Finally, Friday’s US jobs numbers will be crucial for what comes next: a slowdown could reignite hopes for a rate cut.

Thank you all, and onward to the new season

Every day, more of you tune into the podcast, watch the videos, and join the IVT community. Your energy and messages are a real source of motivation! Even during times of fatigue or doubt, discipline and consistency make the difference. I'm taking a short break from Twitch live for the summer, but I'll stay active in Morning Mood, on YouTube, on IVT, and of course on the markets: the mission continues, with you.

Together, we move forward, adapt, and progress. Thank you for your trust and loyalty.
Have a great day, everyone,
Strength and discipline.
See you tomorrow for a new market briefing and always new opportunities to seize.

The IVT Team
July 31, 2025