Cryptos VS Wall Street: What I Prefer Working On Right Now
Morning Mood: Market Analysis for June 4, 2025
Comprehensive analysis of financial markets by InteractivTrading.com – Trading strategies and investment opportunities
Introduction: The Trader Mindset at InteractivTrading
This Wednesday, June 4, 2025, before 6 a.m., the InteractivTrading team shares its expert market vision in a relaxed yet rigorously professional atmosphere. Our approach stands out for its transparency: we reject miracle methods and unrealistic promises that flood the world of online trading.
Profitable trading requires making tough choices, facing market challenges, and pushing forward despite obstacles. This philosophy guides our daily analysis of financial markets at InteractivTrading.com.
"You have to make choices, face difficulties, get back up, and keep moving forward." This quote perfectly sums up the mindset needed to succeed in modern trading and investing.
Technical Analysis of Traditional Markets
Overall Situation of Stock Indices
Financial markets currently show widespread positive sentiment with some complacency among investors. This favorable technical situation is observed across all global stock exchanges, from Wall Street to European bourses.
Despite public debt levels described as "monstrous and stratospheric" compared to countries' GDP, the market shows no particular concern. This disconnect between macroeconomic fundamentals and market sentiment is an important point for active traders to monitor.
Technical analysis indicates that as long as 20-day moving averages (MA20) are maintained across all indices, the upward trend remains intact. This is especially true for European indices such as the CAC 40 and DAX, as well as American indices.
Key Technical Points for Trading
US Indices in "Green Cap" Mode
US indices are currently in a favorable technical setup we at InteractivTrading call the "green cap." This term refers to strong support levels that, as long as they're respected, confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.
The S&P 500 remains above the crucial 5,940-point level. This technical threshold is a major support for bullish trading strategies. Traders can view this level as a potential entry point if prices temporarily pull back.
The Nasdaq Composite shows a strong resistance above 21,500 points. This tech index is supported by solid performances in growth stocks and ongoing optimism about artificial intelligence. Nvidia’s recent, better-than-expected quarterly report is helping maintain positive momentum.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is consolidating above 42,350 points, reaffirming the strength of US equities. This performance is part of a long-term trend favoring traditional, industrial stocks.
European Indices: Holding Key Technical Supports
The Paris CAC 40 currently respects its 20-day moving average around 23,800 points (rounded up from 23,750). This technical zone is a crucial support for the ongoing upward movement in French stocks.
The German DAX shows a similar profile, with its key technical levels holding firm. Frankfurt’s main index benefits from the strength of the German economy and continued loose monetary policies.
Nikkei: More Delicate Situation to Watch
The Japanese Nikkei index is in a more concerning technical situation for investors. Polarity turns negative below 37,800 points, suggesting a potential short-term pullback.
A weakness alert has been set in the 37,400–37,450 point range. If this area is broken to the downside, it would confirm technical weakness and force a re-evaluation of investment strategies for Japan.
Trading Strategy for Indices
The InteractivTrading team currently expresses clear discomfort with initiating new long positions at these high levels. This caution is justified by current valuations and the risk of a technical correction.
On the CAC 40, no positions have been opened for a month. The last profitable trade was a sell after achieving a 70-point gain, from 6,830 to 6,900 points. This selective approach highlights the importance of patience in portfolio management.
This wait-and-see strategy helps preserve capital and wait for better entry opportunities. Experienced traders know it’s better to miss a move than lose money on poorly timed entries.
The Currency Market: Dollar and Euro in Focus
US Dollar: Technical and Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar is undergoing sustained downward pressure, but this weakness causes no panic in the forex market. This technical setup offers interesting opportunities for experienced currency traders.
The US currency is returning to a historical support area that has held since 2022. This technical zone presents potential buying opportunities for investors seeking a technical rebound in the greenback.
Fundamental analysis suggests that despite the twin deficits (fiscal and trade), the dollar maintains its safe-haven status. Decisions by the Federal Reserve continue to strongly influence the currency’s evolution.
Euro/Dollar: Stagnation and Opportunities
The EUR/USD pair has been stagnant around 1.3700 for two months now, creating a range-bound environment that may frustrate momentum traders but offers opportunities for range traders.
A strategic short position has been maintained from the 1.13–1.15 levels, highlighting the importance of patience in managing open forex positions. This strategy fits a medium-term bearish outlook on the euro versus the dollar.
The lack of major expected activity on this asset reflects a disciplined trading approach. Sometimes it’s better not to trade than to force opportunities that don't really exist in the forex market.
Gold: A Preferred Asset for Diversification
Gold is among the favored assets for the InteractivTrading team at this time, along with cryptocurrencies. This strategic allocation is driven by several important technical and fundamental considerations.
The precious metal benefits from ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation fears. These fundamental factors support demand for gold as a traditional safe haven.
Technical analysis of gold reveals solid support levels, encouraging gradual accumulation strategies. This cautious approach allows the construction of a defensive position within a diversified portfolio.
In-Depth Cryptocurrency Analysis
The Revelation of the Total3 Pattern: A Remarkable Finding
The InteractivTrading team has highlighted a remarkable technical finding: an almost perfect correlation between the movements of 2024 and 2025 on the Total3 index. This index tracks total crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This comparative analysis reveals a repeating three-phase pattern with uncanny precision. This discovery is a particularly powerful predictive analysis tool for anticipating moves in the crypto market.
The identified three-phase pattern:
The first phase is an extended bearish period lasting several months. During this time, all altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies) come under continued selling pressure, leading to widespread pessimism.
The second phase is marked by a bullish breakout from the prior, bearish consolidation. This breakout signals the start of a new bullish cycle for altcoins.
The third phase is a sideways consolidation lasting about a month and a half before the final bullish acceleration. This period allows savvy investors to accumulate before prices explode.
Cryptocurrency Classification: Strong vs Weak
InteractivTrading’s technical crypto analysis relies on how assets behave relative to their 50-day moving averages (50DMA, Daily). This approach clearly distinguishes the strongest cryptos from the weakest.
Strong Cryptocurrencies (above Daily 50DMA):
Ethereum (ETH): The world’s second-largest crypto is showing exceptional technical strength. The set price target of $2,700 reflects the bullish potential identified by our analysis. Ethereum benefits from the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFTs.
Avalanche (AVAX): This next-gen blockchain boasts significant technical potential, with an ambitious $300 target. Surpassing $280 would be a particularly encouraging technical signal for further upward movement.
Binance Coin (BNB): The token of the world’s largest crypto exchange remains among the strongest. However, a partial profit-taking of 70% has already occurred, highlighting the importance of risk management.
Weak Cryptocurrencies (below Daily 50DMA):
Solana (SOL): Despite its dynamic ecosystem, Solana is currently experiencing technical weakness. This means a strategic repositioning is needed and closer monitoring of support levels.
Raydium (RAY): At 10–15% below its 50-day moving average, this crypto is currently avoided. This disciplined approach avoids “chasing” assets that are losing technical momentum.
Active Crypto Portfolio Management Strategy
InteractivTrading adopts an active, dynamic portfolio management approach with crypto assets. This method optimizes performance while controlling the significant risks inherent to this volatile asset class.
Optimized Current Exposure:
Exposure currently sits at 60% of crypto-allocated capital, a gradual increase from previous periods. This controlled progression reflects improving technical sentiment in the crypto market.
Dynamic Allocation Strategy:
The strategy is to buy strong cryptos first, then lighten positions during upward phases to buy back on pullbacks. This cyclical approach helps optimize the average entry point.
Timing Based on Technical Analysis:
Allocation decisions are primarily based on the reaction of the 50-day moving average of the Total3 index. This systematic approach limits emotional impact in investment decisions.
Trading Philosophy and a Winning Mindset
The Crucial Importance of Consistency
A central focus of the InteractivTrading philosophy is consistency and perseverance in approaching financial markets. This regularity marks the key difference between amateur traders and long-term professionals.
A high-performance sports analogy illustrates this perfectly. Champions don’t become excellent by accident, but through daily rigorous training and iron discipline. Profitable trading requires the same methodical approach.
Concrete Example of Consistency:
Even while "on the road" on a Sunday, the weekly debrief still happened, literally illustrating the importance of consistency. This personal discipline directly translates into better long-term trading performance.
This consistency applies not only to market analysis, but also to ongoing training, keeping a trading journal, and respecting established risk management rules.
Mindset Transformation: Responsibility vs Excuses
InteractivTrading advocates for a fundamental psychological paradigm shift for developing traders. This mental transformation can revolutionize one's personal approach to trading and investing.
Old paradigm: "I don’t have time to trade today." New paradigm: "I take responsibility for choosing not to trade today."
This psychological rephrasing completely changes your approach to trading. It turns a passive excuse into an active, deliberate decision, boosting self-confidence and personal discipline.
This mindset applies to all aspects of trading: market analysis, risk management, continuous learning, and personal development. Personal responsibility is the foundation of all sustainable financial market success.
A Fundamental Distinction: Trader vs Analyst
InteractivTrading makes a clear distinction between two complementary but different approaches to financial markets.
The Analyst Approach: The analyst explains what has happened, identifies key technical levels, and provides educational context. This approach remains mainly theoretical and educational.
The Trader Approach: The trader makes concrete decisions in real time, assumes financial risks, and actively manages a portfolio. This hands-on approach requires direct financial responsibility.
"Sometimes I do things well, sometimes less well. That’s life." This quote illustrates the acceptance of variable results inherent in active trading.
Sporting Inspiration: Clara Burel at Roland-Garros
The episode ends on an inspiring note, with encouragement for Clara Burel, competing in the quarterfinals at Roland-Garros. This sporting reference perfectly illustrates the mental qualities required for success in trading.
Qualities observed in the player:
Calm and Clear-Headed: Clara Burel demonstrates remarkable emotional management under pressure. This mental quality is crucial for traders faced with financial market volatility.
Combative Without Excess Emotion: The ability to fight without being overwhelmed by emotions is a direct parallel with the psychology of profitable trading. The balance between determination and emotional control defines strong performers.
Exceptional Pressure Management: High-pressure sporting performances offer valuable lessons for stress management in trading. Mental preparation and confidence in one's abilities are transferable to financial markets.
This sports inspiration is a reminder that excellence in any field requires the same fundamental qualities: discipline, perseverance, emotional control, and continuous improvement.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Stock Indices: Critical Thresholds
US Indices:
- S&P 500: 5,940 points (major green cap support)
- Nasdaq Composite: 21,500 points (green cap tech support)
- Dow Jones Industrial: 42,350 points (industrial green cap support)
- Nikkei (Japan): 37,400–37,450 points (critical weakness alert)
These levels are essential technical markers for short- and medium-term trading decisions. Whether they hold or break will determine the future direction of equity markets.
Cryptocurrencies: Targets and Supports
Identified Bullish Targets:
- Ethereum (ETH): Technical target $2,700
- Avalanche (AVAX): Ambitious $300 target, $280 breakout is crucial
- Solana (SOL): Watch Daily 50DMA for potential repositioning
These technical targets are based on chart analysis and historical resistance levels. They serve as guidance for partial profit-taking and adjusting positions.
Currencies: Areas of Active Watch
Key Pairs to Monitor:
- EUR/USD: Watch the 1.3700 stagnation range
- Dollar Index: Historical support area since 2022
These currency levels directly influence international investment returns and currency hedging strategies.
Conclusion: Excellence and Outlook
This InteractivTrading morning analysis reveals a pragmatic and professional approach to financial markets. It combines rigorous technical methods with a keen understanding of trading psychology to offer investors a balanced perspective.
The emphasis on consistency, personal responsibility, and risk management provides a refreshing alternative to the easy-gain promises that flood the financial industry. This sustainable philosophy is the foundation of our approach at InteractivTrading.com.
Current Preferred Strategy:
The team currently favors technically strong cryptocurrencies and gold for diversification, while maintaining justified caution on stock indices at these historically high levels.
The discovery of the Total3 pattern could prove particularly revealing for crypto market evolution in the coming weeks. This comparative analysis between 2024 and 2025 offers significant information advantages.
Outlook:
The coming weeks will be crucial for confirming or refuting the technical scenarios identified. Monitoring the key mentioned levels will allow for real-time investment strategy adjustments.
InteractivTrading.com will continue to provide these morning analyses to assist traders and investors in making financial decisions. Our commitment to transparency and financial education guides every publication.
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