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June 10, 2025 - Third Party

Clear Objective, Plan Followed

This Tuesday, June 10, 2025, is shaping up to be pivotal for the financial markets. After a busy trading weekend, several technical and macroeconomic signals deserve special attention, especially with US inflation expected tomorrow.

Technical Analysis of Major Indices

CAC 40: Horizontal Consolidation

The CAC 40 is currently undergoing a consolidation phase for the past month, moving in a narrow range between 7,700 and 7,900 points. This lateral movement reflects a certain relative weakness compared to its European and American counterparts.

Key Technical Points:

  • Critical support zone: 7,760 points
  • Sell signal triggered if this level is breached
  • Conditional order (OCO) placed to capitalize on potential weakness
  • Wait-and-see strategy favored in the absence of clear directional signals

DAX 40: Confirmed European Strength

The German DAX continues to display its resilience, maintaining a positive polarity above 24,100 points. Yesterday’s session confirmed this technical strength:

  • Session low: 24,098 points (close to the polarity at 24,100)
  • Target reached: 24,235 points
  • Favorable technical setup for further upside

The DAX’s performance can be attributed mainly to a more favorable European interest rate environment compared to the US.

US Indices: Green Cap Maintained

US indices remain positive despite pressure from long-term rates:

S&P 500:

  • Polarity threshold: around 6,000 points
  • Maintaining above key supports
  • Preferred intraday strategy while keeping swing exposure

Dow Jones:

  • Critical zone: 42,160 points
  • No sign of technical or macroeconomic weakness

Macroeconomic Environment: Focus on Inflation

Stakes of US Inflation (Wednesday, June 11)

The highlight this week will be the US inflation publication, with expectations at 2.5% year-on-year versus 2.3% last month.

Possible Scenarios:

  1. Inflation below expectations:

    • Prospect of Fed rate cut maintained
    • Support for equity and crypto markets
    • Strengthening bullish trend

  2. Inflation above expectations:

    • Limits Fed’s room for maneuver
    • Pressure on markets if rates become tense
    • Possible consolidation or correction

Interest Rate Context

The rise in US long-term rates requires vigilance:

  • US 10-year yield: increase from under 4.4% to nearly 4.5%
  • Upward pressure maintained despite expectations of Fed cuts
  • Impact of Trump administration’s tariff policies

Crypto Strategies: Opportunities in Volatility

Crypto Position Performance

Cryptocurrencies are confirming their positive momentum with strategic profit-taking:

Ethereum (ETH) and Avalanche (AVAX):

  • Targets reached: +10% on ETH, +12% on AVAX
  • 50% reduction of new positions
  • Gradual strengthening strategy validated

Sui (SUI):

  • Position secured after targets reached
  • New trading opportunity identified
  • Favorable technical setup

Crypto Risk Management

The adopted strategy favors a progressive approach:

  1. Securing gains: partial reduction on winning positions
  2. Capital preservation: maintain a controlled level of exposure
  3. Anticipation: wait for inflation data to adjust exposure

Total 3: Key Reference Level

Breaking through $880 billion on Total 3 is a major indicator for the next crypto movement. This technical level could trigger a significant bullish acceleration.

Gold Trading: Managing a Delicate Position

The gold position perfectly illustrates the challenges of intraday trading:

Position context:

  • Buy signals in the first part of the morning
  • Unfavorable reversal from 3pm
  • Position currently at a loss

Current support factors:

  • Bullish pressure on oil prices
  • Persistent weakness of the US dollar
  • Attractive real interest rate environment

Management strategy:

  • Holding the position with a defined invalidation level
  • Patience favored before deciding to exit
  • Strict adherence to the initial trading plan

Trading Psychology: Lessons from Experience

The Importance of Perseverance

The DAX example perfectly illustrates the importance of perseverance in trading. Despite several attempts to validate the support zone, patience was rewarded by reaching the target.

Managing Criticism and Noise

Negative feedback is an integral part of the trading environment. The key is to:

  • Stay the course
  • Rely on your trading plan
  • Ignore unconstructive "noise"
  • Learn from each experience, positive or negative

Building Confidence

Trading requires confidence in your analysis and decisions:

  • Accepting the risk of loss as part of the process
  • Developing a systematic and disciplined approach
  • Capitalizing on past—even difficult—experiences

Strategies for the June 11 Session

While waiting for inflation data, the preferred strategy is to:

  1. Maintain existing positions on indices above polarity levels
  2. Avoid new crypto positions before the macroeconomic release
  3. Monitor key technical levels for possible reversal signals

Post-Inflation Scenario

If inflation is favorable:

  • Possible strengthening of crypto positions
  • Progressive increase in exposure
  • Capitalize on bullish momentum

If inflation is unfavorable:

  • Reduce risk exposure
  • Protect acquired gains
  • Await new entry points

Conclusion: Discipline and Patience

This June 10, 2025 analysis emphasizes the fundamentals of successful trading: discipline, patience, and sticking to the plan. Current opportunities in crypto and indices require a methodical approach, especially while awaiting major macroeconomic catalysts.

Diversifying approaches (intraday on indices, swing on crypto) helps maximize opportunities while managing risks. The key is to keep a long-term vision while adapting to market conditions.

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