China Rebounds, Europe Slows: Will the Summer Be Sluggish?

An analysis of the latest PMI indices reveals a stark divergence between Chinese and European economic momentum. While China is showing encouraging signs of recovery, the eurozone struggles to emerge from stagnation. Could this situation signal an economically difficult summer for Europe?

Executive Summary

The latest PMI data for June 2025 outlines a contrasting economic landscape between Asia and Europe. The eurozone keeps its composite PMI at 50.2 points, exposing persistent economic stagnation, while China displays more encouraging signs of a rebound despite a slight drop in its manufacturing PMI.

Eurozone: Weak Growth Sparks Concern

Figures Confirm Stagnation

The eurozone’s composite PMI remained steady at 50.2 in June 2025, marking the second consecutive month of stagnation. This figure, although above the critical 50-point threshold separating growth from contraction, falls short of economists’ expectations of 50.5.

Sector Analysis:

Manufacturing sector: The manufacturing PMI stagnated at 49.4 in June, remaining below 50 for the 36th consecutive month
Services sector: Returned to the critical 50-point threshold after 49.7 in May, signaling a timid stabilization

Worrying Regional Disparities

Economist Cyrus de la Rubia of Hamburg Commercial Bank points out that the “eurozone economy is struggling to gain momentum” with “minimal growth in the last six months.”

National performances reveal stark differences:

France: Continues to “drag its feet” with performance below average
Germany: Unexpectedly returns to growth after just one month of contraction

Glimmer of Hope in Services

Despite this mixed picture, business optimism in the services sector bounced back to a four-month high at 57.9. This improved sentiment could potentially foreshadow a recovery if it translates into real investment.

China: Signs of a Mixed Recovery

Manufacturing PMI Down but Resilient

The latest Chinese data paints a more nuanced picture. China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in May 2025 from 50.4 in April, slipping back below the growth threshold.

Non-Manufacturing Sector: Growth Driver

Conversely, the official services PMI stood at 55.0 in June, showing a slight acceleration in private sector activity compared to May (54.9). This strong performance in China’s tertiary sector contrasts favorably with European stagnation.

Stimulus Policies in Action

Chinese policymakers have pledged to ramp up monetary and fiscal stimulus measures to achieve a growth target of “around 5%” this year. These efforts include:

Extension of the consumer goods trade-in program
Accelerated issuance of public debt
Budget deficit raised to 4% of GDP in 2025

Implications for Financial Markets

Impact on Currencies

This PMI divergence directly affects currency pairs:

EUR: European stagnation puts downward pressure on the euro
CNY: Chinese stimulus measures provide relative support for the yuan

Sectoral Prospects

Investors must adapt their strategies:

European manufacturing sector: Caution advised amid persistent contraction
Chinese services: Potential opportunities in an expanding sector
Commodities: Supported Chinese demand vs. European weakness

Macroeconomic Context and Monetary Policy

ECB: Between Patience and Worry

The European Central Bank (ECB) foresees growth of just 0.9% for the eurozone this year. Now that inflation is under control, it has been able to lower its interest rates, but some officials suggest the easing cycle may be over.

Geopolitical Pressures

Ongoing Sino-American trade tensions continue to influence the global economic dynamic, with differentiated impacts on Asian and European economies.

Summer Outlook: Heading for a Difficult Summer?

Likely Scenarios for Europe

Current data suggest several scenarios for the summer months:

Base scenario: Prolonged stagnation

Near-zero growth in Q2 2025
Persistence of Franco-German disparities
Accommodative monetary policy from the ECB

Pessimistic scenario: Technical recession

Composite PMI slips below 50
Broad manufacturing sector contraction
Downward revision of growth forecasts

Key Factors to Watch

Investors will need to closely monitor:

Evolution of European domestic demand
Effectiveness of Chinese stimulus measures
Geopolitical and trade tensions
Monetary policy of central banks

Conclusion: A Summer of Divergence

The analysis of the June 2025 PMI indices reveals a global economic landscape marked by structural divergences. While China is implementing ambitious stimulus policies already showing results in the services sector, Europe continues to struggle with economic momentum.

This situation does suggest a potentially difficult summer for the eurozone, with risks of prolonged stagnation or even a technical recession. Savvy investors will need to adjust their strategies accordingly, favoring Asian markets while keeping a close watch on European developments.

The key in the coming months will be to determine whether this divergence is temporary or reflects deeper structural differences between the Asian and European economic models.

The IVT Team
June 29, 2025