Nvidia, at the peak of the AI mania in 2024, traded at roughly 40 times trailing revenue. That felt extreme at the time. SpaceX, as of June 16, 2026, traded at approximately 135 times trailing twelve-month revenue of $19.3 billion. Nvidia at its most frenzied looked cheap by comparison.

That is the number that frames everything. Either SpaceX has earned the most extraordinary valuation premium in the history of public markets, or it is the most spectacular mispricing of a company that has never reported a single public earnings quarter. The answer is not settled. What is settled is that trading SPCX as a CFD on Ouinex means taking a position on which outcome arrives first. Here is the full accounting of each.

The Numbers Behind the Valuation

SPCX listed on June 12, 2026 at $135 per share. Four days later it hit an all-time high of $225.64, implying a market cap of approximately $2.65 trillion. As of June 18, 2026, SPCX is trading around $201, giving a market cap of roughly $2.36 trillion. These are the figures the valuation analysis works from:

• Market cap at ATH (June 16): ~$2.65 trillion

• Market cap at current prices (~$201): ~$2.36 trillion

• Trailing twelve-month revenue (TTM): $19.3 billion

• Analyst revenue forecast for 2026: ~$25 billion

• Price-to-sales ratio at ATH: ~137x

• Price-to-sales ratio at current: ~122x

• Nvidia peak P/S (mid-2024): ~40x

• Tesla peak P/S: ~25x

• Amazon current P/S: ~3-4x

No major public company trades at 100x revenue in a steady state. The only period that comes close is the AI infrastructure buildout of 2023 to 2025, when Nvidia hit 40x before compressing back toward 20x. SpaceX is trading at more than three times that peak.

What SpaceX Overtook, and How Fast

In four trading days, SPCX went from $135 to $225.64. At peak, SpaceX's market cap briefly exceeded Amazon's. Amazon, which operates the world's largest cloud infrastructure, the dominant e-commerce platform, and a global logistics network, took 27 years to reach a $2 trillion valuation. SpaceX matched it in a week of public trading.

That speed is not evidence of correctness. It is evidence of demand overwhelming a constrained supply. The float on SPCX is approximately 4% of total shares. That means 96% of shares are still locked with pre-IPO investors and employees. The public market has been pricing a $2.65 trillion company based on trading 4% of its equity. When the other 96% becomes available, the price discovery process starts from scratch.

That context does not make the valuation wrong. But it does make it preliminary.

The Bull Case: What Justifies 135x Revenue

The argument for the premium is not that SpaceX is a rocket company. The market is pricing something more complex: a portfolio of infrastructure businesses that happen to share a launch platform.

• Starlink: More than 12 million subscribers globally as of June 2026, with the subscriber base adding 1 million users roughly every 53 days. Starlink is the only functional low-earth orbit broadband network at global scale, generating approximately $11.4 billion in annual revenue in 2025 and on track to exceed $14 billion in 2026. Its closest competitor is years behind. The unit economics of satellite broadband at this scale are high-margin and compounding.

• Starship commercial economics: Starship is designed to reduce launch costs by an order of magnitude. If it delivers, SpaceX captures satellite deployment contracts from its own Starlink constellation and from competitors, at margins no other provider can match. Starship also opens a credible path to NASA's Artemis lunar surface missions and eventually crewed Mars missions, each worth multi-billion-dollar government contracts.

• xAI: Before the IPO, SpaceX merged with Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company in what was at the time the largest corporate merger in history. Grok, xAI's AI assistant, is integrated across X (Twitter). The xAI addition turns SPCX into a space and AI holding company.

• Cursor acquisition: On June 16, four days after listing, SpaceX announced it is acquiring Cursor, the AI coding platform, for $60 billion in SPCX stock. Cursor crossed $1 billion in annualised revenue in late 2025 and is growing rapidly. If AI coding becomes infrastructure the way cloud computing did in the 2010s, Cursor could be the most valuable asset in the SPCX portfolio within five years.

The sum-of-parts argument for a $2 trillion plus valuation is not delusional. Starlink alone, at its current run rate, is already generating revenues that justify hundreds of billions in standalone value. xAI and Cursor are early but growing fast. Starship commercial economics, if they arrive, change the cost structure of the entire space industry.

The question is not whether these businesses have value. It is whether the market has correctly timed that value: pricing 2030 or 2035 revenues as if they are already here.

The Bear Case: What Could Collapse the Valuation

The bear case does not require SpaceX to fail. It only requires reality to arrive slightly behind the schedule the market has already priced.

• The lock-up expiry: 96% of SPCX shares are locked. When early investors and employees can sell, in tranches starting from six months post-IPO, so from December 2026, they will be selling into a float that was previously only 4%. The supply shock from a 96% unlock is not a routine event. It is a structural repricing. Every buyer who entered above the lock-up expiry prices needs to be replaced by a new buyer who also believes the same valuation.

• Starship program risk: Starship Flight 12 had booster issues that required a stand-down. The FAA declared the booster failure a mishap and grounded Starship pending a full investigation, with a likely July to August 2026 window for Flight 13. Commercial operations depend on Starship being reliable, reusable, and frequent. A mission failure, or a sustained grounding, removes the economics that underpin the bull case. The history of large rocket programs is full of pauses that lasted years.

• Elon Musk concentration risk: A measurable portion of the SPCX premium is the Musk premium: the expectation that the person who built Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink will continue to make exceptional decisions across all of them simultaneously. He is also running xAI, X, and previously DOGE. Attention is finite. Any serious stumble across any of these holdings, including a Tesla earnings miss, an xAI product failure, or a political event, reprices the premium across the portfolio.

• First public earnings: Every analyst model for SPCX is built on estimates. SpaceX has never had to report publicly audited quarterly earnings, answer analyst questions in real time, or defend its accounting to institutional shareholders. The first earnings call, expected in late July 2026, could reset assumptions in either direction. Beats extend the premium. Misses compress it fast, on a thin float.

• The multiple compression math: For 137x P/S to compress to a still-elevated but more sustainable 30x by 2030, SpaceX needs revenue to reach approximately $79 billion per year, a 4x increase from its 2026 forecast of $25 billion. That requires every piece of the portfolio to deliver on its most optimistic scenario, simultaneously, within four years.

The Trading Angle for CFD Traders

For SPCX CFD traders on Ouinex, this valuation analysis does not resolve to a single directional call. It resolves to a watch list.

• Long triggers: Starship Flight 13 success with a clean booster catch, Q1 2026 earnings beat vs analyst estimates, Cursor integration launch showing revenue acceleration, Starlink subscriber count update above 15 million, any government contract announcement above $10 billion.

• Short triggers: Lock-up expiry announcement dates, any Starship mission hold or failure, Elon Musk public controversy affecting all holdings simultaneously, earnings miss on Q1 2026, Cursor acquisition regulatory delay.

The thin float matters here more than it does for any other large-cap. On a stock with normal supply and demand dynamics, a catalyst moves the price by 1-3%. On SPCX, where 4% of shares set the price, the same catalyst moves it 10-20%. That is the environment where CFD leverage up to 20x either builds or destroys accounts rapidly.

You are not investing in SpaceX's fundamentals when you trade SPCX CFDs. You are trading the market's ongoing belief in those fundamentals: in a thin float, belief moves faster than facts.

FAQ

What is SpaceX worth?

As of June 18, 2026, SpaceX has a market cap of approximately $2.36 trillion at a share price around $201. At its all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, the market cap reached approximately $2.65 trillion.

Is SPCX overvalued?

At 122x trailing revenue, SPCX trades at multiples that have no precedent among major public companies. The bull case relies on Starlink, xAI, Cursor, and Starship commercial economics all delivering simultaneously. The bear case is that 96% of shares are still locked and the first public earnings call has not happened. Both cases are live.

How does SpaceX valuation compare to Tesla?

Tesla at its peak in late 2021 traded at roughly 25x trailing revenue. SpaceX is currently trading at 122-137x trailing revenue. SpaceX is priced at a significantly higher premium than Tesla at peak, but the bull case includes AI businesses (xAI, Cursor) that Tesla's valuation never contained.

How does SpaceX compare to Nvidia?

Nvidia peaked at roughly 40x revenue during the AI infrastructure buildout of 2024, then compressed back toward 20x as growth expectations normalised. SpaceX is currently trading at 3x Nvidia's peak multiple, before a single public earnings quarter.

What will SPCX be worth in 12 months?

No one can predict the SPCX price 12 months out. The most important variables are: the first public earnings result (late July 2026), Starship Flight 13 outcome, and the lock-up expiry schedule beginning December 2026. Each of those events could move SPCX materially in either direction.

Can I trade SPCX without a brokerage account?

Yes. Ouinex offers SPCX CFDs to traders globally, with leverage up to 10x. You do not need a brokerage account to take a position on SpaceX's price movements.

Sources

1.    6 Charts on SpaceX's Pre-IPO Financials — Morningstar

2.    SpaceX's Starlink Surpasses 12M Customers Across 160 Countries — Yahoo Finance

3.    FAA Requires SpaceX-Led Mishap Investigation — Spaceflight Now

4.    SpaceX to Acquire Cursor for $60B in Stock — TechCrunch

5.    Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update — Aswath Damodaran

Written byNjami Saadaoui