Futures Indices
- Dow Futures: -0.2%
- S&P 500 Futures: -0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: -0.4%
- US 10-year yield: 4.22%
Market Environment
US futures indices are limiting their losses this Friday after the July PCE index was released, meeting expectations and confirming a moderation in inflation.
- Core PCE (excluding energy and food): +0.3% M/M (expected: +0.3%); +2.9% Y/Y (expected: +2.9%).
- Overall PCE Index: +0.2% M/M; +2.6% Y/Y, in line with consensus.
Other indicators today:
- Trade deficit for goods higher than expected.
- Wholesale and retail inventories up +0.2% M/M, as expected.
- The Chicago PMI index (August) expected at 45.2 (vs. 47.1 in July) will be published at the open.
Yesterday, markets closed higher after Nvidia's strong results, pushing the S&P 500 to a new record above 6,500 points.
“Markets put in another decent performance yesterday... But even as equities hit new highs, investors remain heavily focused on the Federal Reserve’s independence,” — Henry Allen, Deutsche Bank
On the Fed side, Christopher Waller raised hopes for rate cuts by stating he was in favor of a first cut as early as next month, with others possible in the next 3 to 6 months.
An emergency hearing involving Lisa Cook (Fed) is scheduled for today at 10 am EST.
Stocks to Watch
Gainers
- Ambarella (AMBA) +18.63%: Q2 results beat expectations, including forecasts.
- Affirm (AFRM) +17.14%: Strong FY26 guidance after a better-than-expected Q4.
- Iris Energy (IREN) +16.97%: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 above consensus.
- Autodesk (ADSK) +12.09%: Q2 results and outlook beat expectations.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) +2.90%: FY25 guidance revised upward.
Decliners
- Marvell (MRVL) -14.04%: Q2 results in line, but revenue outlook lower.
- Caterpillar (CAT) -2.28%: Tariff impact revised up; annual costs estimated at $1.8 billion.
- Gap (GAP) -3.00%: Drop linked to Athleta weakness; comp sales lower.
Rating Changes
Upgrades
- Crowdstrike (CRWD) → DZ Bank upgrades to Hold (from Sell), target raised to $400.
- Gap (GAP) → KGI upgrades to Neutral (from Hold), target raised to $21.40.
- Affirm (AFRM) → Citizens maintains Outperform, target raised from $75 to $105.
- Astera Labs (ALAB) → Morgan Stanley maintains Overweight, target raised from $155 to $200.
- Elastic (ESTC) → Scotiabank maintains Sector Outperform, target at $121.
- First Solar (FSLR) → Daiwa maintains Outperform, target at $215.
- MongoDB (MDB) → China Renaissance maintains Buy, target raised to $392.
- Nvidia (NVDA) → CICC maintains Outperform, target raised to $200.
- Snowflake (SNOW) → HSBC maintains Hold, target raised to $238.
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) → JP Morgan maintains Neutral, target raised to $235.
Neutral
- Globant (GLOB) → Maintained Overweight by Morgan Stanley, target trimmed to $100.
Downgrades
- Lucid Group (LCID) → Stifel maintains Hold, target lowered to $2.10.
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Have a great session, everyone
Sylvain Mouilhaud: Stock Coach
