What to Know Before Wall Street Opens
US markets start the week in uncertainty amid growing political risk: high probability of a shutdown, new trade tensions, and a flood of dense macro and corporate news. Yet, index futures remain relatively stable.
US Indices (Futures)
- Dow Jones: UNCH
- S&P 500: -0.06%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.20%
🏛 Bond Yields (US Treasury)
Yields are slightly down across the curve:
- 10-year: 4.22% (-1.6 bps)
- 30-year: 4.81% (-2.1 bps)
- 2-year: 3.60% (-0.6 bps)
Political & Trade Tensions
- Shutdown ahead? The odds of a US government shutdown after January 30 have soared from 8% to 78% (source: Polymarket).
- Tariffs: Donald Trump threatens to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if a deal is signed with China.
“A very volatile start to the year in terms of news flow, but markets are holding up”—Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank
🏗 US Macro: Durable Goods Orders (November)
- Overall: +5.3% vs +3.0% consensus (previous: -2.1%)
- Ex-transportation: +0.5% vs +0.3% consensus
- Ex-defense: +6.6% (strong rebound)
Stocks on the Move
S&P 500 Gainers
- Newmont Corporation (NEM): +4.65%
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): +3.91%
- Steel Dynamics (STLD): +3.11%
S&P 500 Losers
- Alexandria Real Estate (ARE): -2.48%
- Coinbase Global (COIN): -2.00%
- Ametek (AME): -1.69%
Health & Biotech
- Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT): +10% after-hours on Friday, ahead of 3-year results from its EMBARK trial (Duchenne muscular dystrophy treatment).
Strategic Industry: USA Rare Earth (USAR)
- Pre-market: +15.9%
- Major US government support via the CHIPS program: $1.6B commitment ($277M in funding + $1.3B loan).
- Private fundraising: $1.5B with Inflection Point.
- Goal: construction of a magnet manufacturing plant in Oklahoma and a mine in Texas (Round Top deposit).
“This project is essential to the critical mineral independence of the United States.”—Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce
Tech & AI: Nvidia/CoreWeave
- Nvidia invests $2B in CoreWeave at $87.20/share.
- Goal: deployment of over 5 GW of "AI factories" by 2030.
- CoreWeave will adopt Nvidia's new architectures: Rubin, Vera CPUs, Bluefield storage.
Recommendations & Ratings Changes
- Amazon: downgraded to accumulate (target raised to $290)
- Intel: upgraded to buy with a $60.30 price target
- Meta Platforms: upgraded to buy, target $900
- Netflix: upgraded to accumulate, but target lowered to $100
- Solventum: upgraded to overweight, target $97
- United Airlines: downgraded to hold, target $123.80
- Albemarle: recommendation maintained, target raised to $174
- Freeport-McMoRan: target raised to $64.40
- Merck: target raised to $115
- Sandisk: target raised to $483
- Schlumberger: target raised to $60
