ETHEREUM, BITCOIN & Euphoria: Staying Clear-Headed in the Fog

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6NOUu0Q0AHTpvQ6gLeXzur?si=Rkl5TbRqRdSnf_r5e50HtQ

Mindset of the Day: Stay the Course, Remain Rigorous

Hi everyone, it's 6:20 am, time to check in before the session ahead. Markets remain resolutely bullish, momentum is strong, but volatility is fading—a typical summer pattern with lighter volumes. Beneath this apparent calm, expectations are tangible: The Fed remains the main catalyst, with an eye on Trump, Jerome Powell, and of course the market’s reactions to each new macro figure or corporate result.

New Records for US Indices... But What Strategy Now?

Yesterday, the SP500 closed above 6,300 for the first time ever—a historic event. But the real question isn't "do we buy?", "do we sell?" or "do we stay on the sidelines?", it's: what should we actually do today? For US indices, the trend remains positive: as long as the SP500 is above 6,280–6,285, the buy zone remains valid around 6,300. I worked this plan yesterday on IVT by taking a buy on the AMM50 on the 15-minute, which paid off perfectly.

For Europe, the situation is different: the CAC below 7,820 and the DAX under 24,300 remain weak, with negative momentum calling for caution—even favoring selling on pullbacks. The weakness is clear and persistent, so I go easy: red hat for Europe, green hat for the US. Adapt, stay flexible, and avoid falling into the "always bullish" cliché.

Decisive Week: Earnings, ECB, and PMI in the Spotlight

This week, everything is focused on Thursday: publication of PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) and the ECB meeting. No surprises expected regarding European rates, which should remain stable, but macro attention remains critical. On earnings, it's peak season: tomorrow night, Tesla and Alphabet (Google) will kick off with their quarterly results.

US yields: 10-year is easing, the dollar is pulling back—all of which continues to boost risk assets, and partially explains the recent records. Oil: steady around $68 a barrel. Gold perfectly hit my $3,400–$3,430 target, but be careful, this is no longer a buy zone: we’re entering a short-term profit-taking area, real buy zone remains around $3,281.

Today's Plan: US Strength, European Weakness, Discipline Above All

My roadmap is simple: buy what's rising most, sell what's falling most—no excessive conviction, stick to my management rules, no guessing the future. As long as DAX is below 24,300 (even 24,180), no buys, favor sells on weakness, with possible acceleration if 24,180 breaks. For SP500, above 6,285, all good: still in the buy zone.

Nikkei: inflection zone below 40,000; every time we test it since 2024, there's resistance. Small defensive short this morning at 39,600, just to follow the current momentum.

Crypto: Stay Stoic Amid the General Euphoria

Crypto is truly euphoric since mid-July. Yes, you needed to be aggressive on market dips. Now the temptation is to get excited. Bad idea: discipline trumps excitement. I reduced my ETH at 3,400–3,430—no regrets. Markets, like life, move in cycles: waiting, acceleration, correction phases.

Just because you’re on a straight road doesn’t mean you can unfasten your seatbelt: always stay vigilant, even during a “bull market”. Stay focused, don’t take your hands off the wheel just because everyone else is popping champagne.

Process, Self-Questioning, and Lifelong Learning

What matters isn't being right every time, but respecting your discipline, improving, and constantly questioning your process. Like golf or any skill, the journey is more important than the individual result. We learn, adapt, move forward.

Technical Questions – AMM200, Ranges, and Chart Patterns

Quick shoutout to Tom (congrats on your distinction with honors on the bac!). Regarding MM200: if something is above the MM200 but in a range, yes, the underlying trend remains bullish, but it doesn’t guarantee direction. These are guides, not certainties: market psychology, support/resistance strength and reading the mood make all the difference. Analyzing chart patterns on longer timeframes (weekly, monthly, quarterly) is essential for medium to long-term investing.

IVT Mindset: Strength, Discipline, Humility

Every morning I share a mindset: be enthusiastic but not naive. Grow, interact, share doubts and successes, stay open. We don’t own the truth: we search, we learn, we evolve. The market waits for no one.

This Morning’s Takeaways

SP500: Historic record, buy zone above 6,285–6,300
DAX/CAC: ongoing weakness; favor selling below 24,300 (DAX) and 7,820 (CAC)
Crypto: be vigilant, profit zone on gold, beware of overheating on ETH
Macro: Focus on Thursday (PMI + ECB) & US results (Tesla, Google)
Discipline: the secret is consistency, not momentary euphoria

Finally, congrats again to Tom on his success! For anyone wanting to join IVT, 109 spots remain at -25%. After that, it’ll be too late! See you tonight for the live session on Twitch. Have a great session, keep a cool head, and above all—respect your plans.

This article was written to share, learn, and engage, true to the InteractivTrading community. For more daily updates, join us at IVT.com and tune in to live sessions every Tuesday night on Twitch.

Xavier Fenaux
July 23, 2025