*Originally published in French on objectifeco.com, December 11, 2009. The site was purged in 2016; this text survives only in the Internet Archive. Snapshot. Translated, not rewritten: what follows is the original argument as it was made, including what time has since proven wrong. Where that happens, you'll find a note from the desk, dated 2026.*
85% of retail traders trade counter-trend. They have a high win rate, often above 60, even 70%.
But when they lose, they lose heavily, often the gains built up over several months, plus part of their capital.
The average lifespan of a counter-trend trader is three accidents. After that third accident, they generally no longer have enough money left in the account to ever hope of turning positive again.
To this day, I've only met one counter-trend trader who was able to prove to me he'd won for several consecutive years.
15% of traders trade the trend. They have a low win rate, around 30%. They lose little.
Only those who manage to hold on to winning positions long enough make it through over the long run. Roughly one in four trend traders makes money over the long term.
Choose your camp carefully when you build your trading method.
Part of a series. This article belongs to Trading Styles: Every One Sends You a Bill. Related: Trend Trading: The Key to Success and Counter-Trend Trading: The Key to Success. Background: trend following in the Ouinex glossary.
About the author. Samuel Rondot has traded financial markets since 1995 and is self-taught. He wrote a book on technical analysis, published a long run of trading columns between 2009 and 2016, and now runs the algorithmic trading desk at Ouinex.
Trading leveraged products carries a high risk of loss.
